Mr. Nikhil K. Rao, Director and Chief Engineer of Boeing Engineering India, delivered the 11th Dr. K. C. G. Verghese Endowment Lecture, discussing the future of aerospace. He highlighted AI, sustainability, autonomous aviation, and India’s expanding role, emphasizing technological disruptions, fleet growth, and the industry’s ongoing transformation.
The world is now more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous than ever. When discussing the future of aerospace, it’s beneficial to start by looking at the past. The Penny-Farthing bicycle was the standard mode of transportation from about 1860 to the 1890s. However, it was a dreadful design. During that 30-year period, many people suffered from broken bones, severe injuries, and even fatalities because they would fall off, even at low speeds. Women could not ride this bicycle because it required shorts or pants, which were not part of women’s attire at that time. It was neither inclusive nor safe, yet it was widely accepted.
By 1890, the safety bicycle emerged and became the norm for transportation. The bicycle, as we know it today, turned into a booming business. This innovation led to two gentlemen and bicycle mechanics, Orville and Wilbur Wright, who went on to invent the airplane. The dream of flying has captivated people long before Leonardo da Vinci wrote about it, but no one could crack the code. Without the bicycle, we might not have the airplane today. Individuals like Samuel Langley, who had millions of dollars and teams of scientists from prestigious universities like Harvard, tried to develop an airplane but failed. It took two bicycle mechanics to figure it out, as the controls and balance of aircraft are very similar to riding a bicycle. While it seems simple to us now, it was revolutionary back then.
The airplane was invented in 1903. Bill Boeing did not fly an actual aircraft until July 4, 1915. On his very first flight, he fell in love—not with any woman, but with flying and aviation. He was captivated from that moment on. About a year later, on July 15, 1916, he founded Pacific Air Products, which is now known as the Boeing Aircraft Company. Boeing wanted everyone to experience the magic of flight.
I’m using the term “magic” intentionally because, as an aeronautical engineer, I wake up every morning in wonder and amazement. If you looked up and saw 50 elephants flying above your head, wouldn’t your mind be blown away? It absolutely would. That’s what a Boeing 747 is—the same weight as 50 elephants. Nowadays, we don’t even look up when we hear an airplane fly overhead. It is truly magical.
Dr. KCG Varghese was also an aviation enthusiast. People like Bill Boeing and Dr. Varghese are the ones who make things happen. Futurists like them not only envision how the world should be, but they also take action to make it so.
Connect, Protect and Explore
Why do we fly? Primarily, for me, it’s to connect, protect, and explore our world. Connection is vital because there’s so much conflict and turmoil in the world. When you have a friend who is Korean or German, you realise they’re just like us—we might speak different languages, but there is so much beauty in other countries and cultures. We come to understand that, while we can be different, we have many similarities as well. This connection enhances human understanding and cultural exchange. It also allows for the delivery of humanitarian aid. Boeing delivered masks and supplies all over the world, including India, to help during the Covid crisis.
The part I love most is the exploration aspect. We know more about space than we do about the oceans on our planet. We have products that map the surface of the ocean and autonomous submarines, known as submersibles, exploring the depths. We also venture into outer space. This journey of exploration and passion will continue because each time we explore, we learn more about humanity and ourselves. Some individuals are working on putting people on Mars, and future generations may even live on the Moon, Mars, or other places beyond Earth. That is incredibly exciting.
Reality Strikes Hard
While it’s thrilling to discuss these possibilities, there’s a stark reality: only one in 20 people have actually flown on an aircraft. Every year, three and a half billion people fly, but it’s individuals like us who might take 20 to 30 flights a year. The majority of people, 99% of them, have never been on an airplane and have never experienced the magic and wonder of flight.
As we think about the future of aerospace, I consider the 19 other people who have not had the joy and experience of flying. What can we do for them? For instance, Boeing has a significant initiative with a dedicated leader for accessible flights, for people with disabilities. We are thinking about individuals with mobility issues and even elderly people who struggle to use the overhead storage for their bags. We aim to create more inclusive flights—not just in the aircraft, but the entire experience from the airport to the airplane.
Boeing and Sustainability
It is crucial for companies like Boeing to prioritise sustainability. Did you know that 95% of a Boeing 787 is completely recyclable? It’s truly amazing, though we still have a 5% opportunity to improve. We are also working on new designs like the transonic truss-braced wing, as well as developing new supply chains, production systems, and propulsion technologies. The end-of-life of an aircraft matters greatly, which is why we focus on sustainability.
Fleet renewal presents a tremendous opportunity, especially in India. India is the third-largest market for commercial aircraft and defence products, with an expenditure of nearly 77 billion US dollars annually. This significant investment is justifiable. By 2070, India is projected to become the largest economy in the world, surpassing the US. When I relocated to India and first met my engineers and the team here, I told them there’s never been a better time to be in India. I’ll say this to you next year and in the years to come, and it will remain true. From a fleet renewal standpoint, India has a vast market and immense growth potential. Getting on a flight might be tougher than the flight itself due to security checks and other challenges. So, the entire infrastructure will need to be developed.
Our fleet in India currently comprises about 700 aircraft, and it is expected to quadruple in the next 20 years to 2,500. Moreover, the current fleet is 15% more fuel-efficient than airlines operating in Western countries. This not only helps save the planet but also benefits the airlines financially. Boeing is dedicated to assisting airlines in focusing on efficiency and better fuel economy, regardless of their product.
Renewable Energy
The energy infrastructure is slowly decarbonising and becoming less reliant on fossil fuels. However, aviation presents more challenges compared to something simpler, like auto rickshaws switching to batteries or CNG. In aviation, we have different segments. For short or ultra-short hauls, such as emerging air taxis and electric planes, some companies are developing electrically powered options. There will also be some hydrogen-powered solutions for these ultra-short segments. By 2030, we will likely see these changes.
For medium and long-haul travel, we will still rely on hydrocarbons for at least another two to three decades. In the meantime, over the past 20 years, we have developed sustainable aviation fuel, which is an alternative plant-based biofuel that we blend and provide to multiple airlines. We manage these plants similarly to how we manage forests, so we can produce biofuel which is a bit cleaner and cheaper. This will act as a bridge until new technologies scale up and become safer. Currently, hydrogen is still not safe for aviation.
Advanced Technology
When it comes to advanced technology, Boeing has developed the MQ-25 and MQ-28, which are autonomous military vehicles. These vehicles communicate with air traffic control, taxi themselves at airports, take off, perform their missions, and return without pilots. They can even coordinate with other airplanes for aerial refuelling. Boeing has been providing these solutions to military customers for decades, and the challenge now is to transition some of that autonomy into civil and commercial aviation.
We have a partnership with the Indian Navy involving the Wave Glider, an autonomous liquid robot that sits just below the water’s surface, providing reconnaissance for the Navy. It can detect submarines and has strong defensive capabilities.
Boeing also has a subsidiary working on a sixth-generation autonomous air taxi. While many companies are ahead in the air taxi game, they often have pilots involved. Our air taxi is completely autonomous and was recently approved by the FAA, overcoming a significant regulatory hurdle. We are now moving forward with this exciting technology.
A Legacy that Flies High
The beauty of Boeing lies in its 108-year-old rich legacy. However, I remind our engineers daily that we are making history today with the products we create. One hundred years from now, books will be written about the work we are doing—work that people only dream of. It’s an exciting place to work.
That said, complacency can set in with an organisation as old as Boeing. We’re not just competing with Airbus anymore; we’re competing with companies like Apple and Google. The market is very disruptive, with many new players, so we can’t take anything for granted. Boeing was founded in 1916, and in 2016 we celebrated our centennial. Our CEO hosted a variety of people from different fields—sci-fi movie scriptwriters, academics from MIT and Harvard, Nobel laureates—to envision what 2116 would look like. I participated in a similar exercise in India for 2047, marking India’s 100th year of independence. This forward-thinking approach is how Boeing maintains its edge and continues to innovate.
Outlook for India
By 2042, the aviation industry in India is projected to earn nearly a trillion dollars a year. Globally, 10.8 billion passengers will fly annually. The demand for pilots is increasing significantly. For commercial flights carrying 200 passengers, it’s unlikely that regulatory bodies will approve fully autonomous flights. However, there is potential to reduce the requirement to one pilot with an assistive system. Today, the demand for pilots is very high, and the average age of a pilot in the global fleet is 51. Where will these young pilots come from?
India’s average age is 29, and the country will remain youthful for another 40 years. Boeing is investing 100 million US dollars in pilot training in India alone, addressing a substantial demand and need. This is excellent news for all of us. With the commercial fleet expected to expand from 700 to 2,400 aircraft in the near future, there will be a demand for a wide range of jobs—from engineers to technical mechanics to seamstresses for interior products and more. Universities like Hindustan are a vital pipeline for companies like Boeing, producing the talent needed to meet this exponentially growing demand. We have had a significant partnership with Hindustan University for many years, and many of their alumni are working at Boeing in Chennai.
Future: Known and Unknown
There are two types of future: one that is knowable and one that is unknowable. We can predict what will happen in the next five to ten years with some degree of accuracy, and in some cases, we can make educated guesses. However, the unknowable future presents more uncertainties. Many people may be concerned about artificial intelligence and its disruptive potential. Will AI take our jobs?
I believe that human intelligence will always surpass AI. It’s essential for us to develop critical skills for ourselves and our children so that we can contribute significantly in the future. Decision-making is crucial. Management associations and corporate leaders have a vital role to play. When making decisions, we incorporate your values and the values of the company. A machine can’t understand values.
For instance, while a machine algorithm might suggest “getting rid of X and Y,” we might see their potential and consider them valuable assets. I will always prefer a low performer with the right values over a superstar with the wrong values because I can always coach for performance, but I cannot teach values. Values are either present or they are not. Machines produce volumes of data, which we need to understand and digest. One essential skill we’ll need is digital intelligence to differentiate signal from noise.
The human in the loop can grasp non-linear relationships between data, which is challenging for machines. Humans have an edge when it comes to imagination and creative thinking. While machines can replicate what we do, they can’t generate and develop at the same level, at least not yet. We need to think about solving big-picture systems and non-linear problems. We also need emotional intelligence to coexist with AI and big data without being replaced by them.
FEAR Not But FEAR
Think about FEAR. It’s not about the fear of AI but an acronym: you can either Fear Everything And Run (FEAR) or Face Everything And Rise (FEAR). The Boeing Company has had a presence in India for more than eight decades. What we are trying to do here is not just build our future, but also look at the future of the country, always striving to make things safer, better, and faster. That’s our model.
What we are developing as a team excites me because the technology we are building here is going to change the world. We’re cultivating a culture of STEM in more minds so that we can contribute to the future of aviation in India—for India and for the world. We take pride in connecting the entire world with our heart. Let me conclude by sharing that Boeing does not just build products; we carry the hopes and dreams of humanity on our shoulders and move humanity forward. For me, aviation is the human spirit taking flight.
Q&A
Q: You spoke about the aviation sector transitioning towards sustainable aviation fuels and hybrid electric aircraft. What key breakthroughs are needed to make these technologies scalable and economically viable for widespread adoption?
Nikhil Rao: When we think about solar energy, we need vast spaces to set up solar panels. Electric technology also requires significant space. For something to be used in an aircraft, it must be both scalable and impactful. The volume of the technology is crucial, but even more important is the safety aspect in aviation and aerospace. Aircraft operate in harsh environments, including low earth orbit. They must withstand temperatures ranging from -70°F to +130°F. An aircraft sitting in Qatar or Dubai must endure intense heat and sunlight and then take off and perform flawlessly every time. These are some of the biggest challenges. Ensuring reliability in such harsh environments is one of the most significant hurdles.
Q: As a certified Project Management Professional (PMP), how do you approach managing large-scale, multidisciplinary projects in a fast-evolving sector like aerospace?
Nikhil Rao: I was once at a leadership event where someone asked me a tough question: “Can you describe leadership in one word?” I chose “clarity.” The opposite of clarity is doubt, and doubt drives distrust, which destroys teams. From a PMP perspective, one of the most helpful artifacts is a project charter, which helps us understand the right problem we’re solving. As engineers, we often dive into problem-solving without truly identifying the correct problem.
When building a team as a project leader, it’s essential to have diversity on the team. I appreciate people who are the “troublemakers” because they see things I might miss. I select individuals with divergent thoughts. There’s a great book by Doris Kearns Goodwin called “Team of Rivals” about Abraham Lincoln, who built his cabinet with people who had lost the election against him.
An aircraft is a very complex machine, comprising three million parts that function in perfect formation at 40,000 feet. A lot can go wrong, and one key to success is documenting assumptions. During the development of a product and program, assumptions change, so writing them down is crucial. Managing and updating the baseline, and maintaining that discipline, is critical.
Q: With the industry exploring new initiatives such as autonomous aircraft, sustainable aviation fuels, and supersonic travel, how does Boeing India align its strategic objectives to stay ahead of these trends?
Nikhil Rao: I can approach improvements in two ways: either by aiming for a 10% improvement or a 90% improvement. One represents incremental thinking, and the other represents disruptive thinking. We must understand key parameters, stay attuned to developments, and always make sense of what is happening in universities and other companies worldwide. Globally, the world spends $1 trillion a year on R&D. We are absolutely plugged into that whole ecosystem to either shape it or learn from it. We influence it and incorporate it into our work. Within the company, we maintain a disciplined approach to innovation, continually sponsoring and encouraging people to think differently. This is how we strive to stay ahead of the game.
Q: How is Boeing integrating AI and ML into its engineering and operations to support the future of autonomous aircraft and enhance overall efficiency?
Nikhil Rao: AI and ML, as we know them today, are primarily based on natural language processing (NLP). Essentially, we’ve trained these systems using a vast array of books and websites. This has resulted in highly sophisticated language models that can produce impressive scripts with coherent and beautiful words. However, when it comes to engineering or any other technical field, relying solely on artificial intelligence can be risky.
At Boeing, we have developed our own AI and ML systems to train datasets on the technical data we’ve accumulated over 108 years, covering areas such as flight controls and atmospheric behaviours. Over time, we will leverage this to aid and facilitate engineers in making better decisions. AI can handle many of the administrative tasks that engineers typically perform. However, when it comes to technical analysis and execution, the engineer remains 100% involved in the process.
Q: How does Boeing foster a culture of innovation and adaptability in its global and Indian team? How soon will air taxis find application in Indian cities?
Nikhil Rao: I’ll start with the second question on air taxis. We can only go as fast as the regulatory organisations allow. The FAA in the US, EASA in Europe, and DGCA in India determine how fast we can progress. We’ve got proven technology and have been using it, but how soon it will happen in India depends on how quickly the regulatory agencies are ready to certify the product.
Regarding the first question, many people think we’re in India because it’s the third-largest market. However, even if India wasn’t buying any planes, we would still be here. Why? Because we have some of the best engineers in the world—not just engineers, but talented individuals from various fields. We are here for the talent, not just the market. Our global strategy involves understanding and tailoring our approach to where the talent is. We not only work for India, in India, by Indians, but we also contribute to global projects from India. The same approach applies to our operations in Germany and other places. This is a key part of our global strategy.
Q: Not many colleges offer aeronautical engineering courses. How can you end up in the aeronautical profession?
Nikhil Rao: Many companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman have only 4% of their graduates specialised in aerospace or aeronautical engineering. Most of the work is done by electrical engineers, mechanical engineers, and other fields. I have been passionate about airplanes since I was three. If you have that level of commitment and passion, aeronautical engineering is a good fit. However, if you simply want to be in the aerospace industry, you don’t need an aerospace degree. You can contribute in many ways in the supply chain or production system without being an aeronautical engineer.
From another perspective, having a degree in a different field makes you more versatile, allowing you to transition more easily to other industries and sectors. For me, the world revolves around passion. It doesn’t matter even if there are no jobs—if you’re passionate about something, you can invent something. Dr. KCG Varghese, for example, invented an airline. You must create opportunities rather than wait for them. So, follow your passion.
