Amid shifting geopolitics and global uncertainties, Mr. M K Narayanan examines India’s evolving role, challenges, and opportunities in shaping world dynamics.
It is some time since I spoke to an elite audience such as this. Also, in the precincts of the Madras Management Association. I have the added pleasure today to speak on a subject of contemporary relevance and importance, ‘India’s Emerging Role in the Evolving Global Dynamics’.
Let me begin by mentioning certain constants which we cannot ignore. One, that we live in a world wherein uncertainty is the predominant factor. Next, this is a world where we are witnessing constant shifts in geopolitical hegemonies and wide ranging geopolitical tensions. Additionally, a world in which we confront a multitude of disruptive technologies, and wherein economic tsunamis are the order of the day. In short, we live in a world where the ‘rules based international order’ is being, or has been, replaced by ‘shambolic disorder’.
Before I come to India’s role, let me briefly survey the world around us. The US, once the leader of the so called ‘free world’, is today a pale shadow of what it was in 1945 at the end of World War II. Also, once a pillar of democratic stability, the US is today grappling with profound problems while maintaining the pretension of being the leader of the democratic world. China, the hegemon that the US acutely desires to confront, and possibly eclipse, is meanwhile gaining in strength and importance.
The truth is that the US today has no perceived strategy to deal with a China that is constantly involved in unveiling new global initiatives – the latest being The Global Governance Initiative (GGI) – which lays out China’s plan on how the new global rules are to be written. It is the Fifth in a chain that includes the Global Development Initiative, and the Global Security Initiative. At the foreign policy level, China has meanwhile succeeded in brokering alliances with countries like Russia, attempted to reach a thaw with countries in its vicinity such as India, firmly established its presence in Southeast Asia, and has strengthened its relationship with most countries of Asia and Africa. It also maintains a respectable relationship with much of Europe – mainly by way of trade.
At the other end, Europe’s condition today is indeed pathetic. Its inability to come to the aid of Ukraine in the latter’s conflict with Russia has exposed its inherent weaknesses. The fact that even with NATO’s support, Europe and Ukraine have been unable to withstand Russia reflects the current realities in Europe.
The situation in West Asia is, if anything, bleaker. Israel with the backing of the US has disregarded all civilizational norms and is currently engaged in a virtual genocide of the Palestinian people, specially in Gaza. This, unfortunately, has the implicit backing of the US. The situation there today is graver than anything that had been seen across several decades. Furthermore, in the wake of the short Israel-Iran conflict, Israel has made little secret of its desire to destroy Iran, again with the tacit and implicit backing of the US.
Across entire West Asia, what we are witnessing today is a churn, and of a kind not witnessed previously. The eclipse of the Alawite Syrian regime, and the exposure of Iran’s weaknesses during the recent Israel-Iran conflict, have added to fears of Sunni dominance in this volatile region. Today, the world seems to be at a point where nations like the US, China and Russia are all attempting to not merely dominate, but also carve-out zones of influence across this region.
Many regions of Asia may look relatively more peaceful compared to West Asia and Europe, but the internal situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan – with terrorist groups operating their own fiefdoms – belies this fact. Also, what is contributing towards still more concern – both to the region and the world – is the further rise of the military in the affairs of the Pakistani State. This is well epitomised by the emergence of Asim Munir as the dominant figure in the affairs of Pakistan. It is something that poses a direct threat to the future of democracy across the region.
All this, in turn, directly affects Pakistan’s present and future relations with India. The events of April and May this year, first the massacre of Hindu tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir, and next the Indo-Pak conflict in May, already reflect the current reality and we should anticipate a period of heightened India-Pakistan conflicts. The Indo-Pak war in May this year has confirmed this. It further indicates how the skies are going to be the new zone of any future conflict, and how success would come to those countries that possess the best military equipment – India with its Rafale fighters from France, alongside the Russian made S-400 and the Barak missile, pitted against Pakistan’s Turkish Songer drones and the several variants of the Chinese J-10C aircraft. Yet to be fully assessed are the implications of the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan nuclear arrangement, but what is evident is that Pakistan’s decision to provide a ‘nuclear umbrella’ for Saudi Arabia marks a historic turning point in the geopolitics of not only of West Asia but of South Asia – specially in the Indo-Pak context.
Compounding the uncertainty on India’s Western front, are also the upheavals – earlier in Bangladesh, and more recently in Nepal. In both countries, Parliamentary democracy has been the main victim, and the military under various garbs the essential victor. India, hence, requires to be on its guard to ensure that the transformation of the overall situation and the pressures across the region, do not pose a danger to India’s future and its progress. As of now, this is still work in progress, but the situation is far from a sanguine one.
The external situation, and the situation in India’s immediate neighbourhood, is, hence, quite grim, but I do not subscribe to the view of many, that a dystopian future awaits countries like India. I would instead adhere to the belief that what is happening across the world highlights what some prefer to call ‘the end of modernity’. We cannot, hence, afford to let down our guard.
My estimate of how India is placed in this situation, would appear at odds with what is generally written, stated or spoken of, at different fora and published in different journals in the country. In your invite, you had raised a question as to whether inconsistencies in the new – political arena would put brakes on our national ambitions and goals – geoeconomic, geopolitical and geostrategic. Answering the question would be a tall order in the prevailing circumstances. At the risk of hurting Indian sentiments, I would, nevertheless, urge that we in India move away from the belief that our role is today critical in determining the future course of world events. It might be much wiser if we in India were to take a more detached view, and take steps accordingly.
I would further add that it is too early for India to believe that it has ‘arrived’ on the world scene. Perceptions domestically regarding India’s future are, to my mind, excessively optimistic to say the least. No doubt on the economic front, India has emerged as a country to reckon with, having become the fourth largest economy and the fastest growing economy in the world. Also that, India displays a great deal of maturity in both action and thought.
Yet, whether this is enough to tide over what I see as forthcoming turbulences in the political, the economic and the overall global scene is yet to be seen. This is particularly true of the decade 2025-2035. India needs to ponder more deeply over whether it possesses the necessary depth, rather than being satisfied with the status quo. Do understand that I am talking of situations that extend beyond traditional conflicts and wars between nations. The coming decade, for instance, is likely to throw up a spate of new challenges such as pandemics, climate change and the movement of large masses of people, apart from other existing issues, which are likely to test the capability and capacity of most nations, including India.
While, I do not wish to be unduly pessimistic, I do believe that it is good to be realistic, about the positioning of India in today’s world and in the uncertain global politics of today. For instance, India’s relations with the so called Big Powers in the world – the US, Russia and China – are in a state of flux. No amount of optimism can obviate the fact that India-US relations have slipped dangerously, and are at a level where uncertainty is its most prominent characteristic. India’s relations with Russia, though reasonably firm, has entered a period where there is room for disbelief, perhaps, due to some degree of equivocation on India’s part in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia war. India’s relations with China which have been unsatisfactory in recent years, resulting in several degrees of concern, again requires careful watching. Notwithstanding the rapport lately seen between Indian and Chinese leaders in Tianjin (China) on 30 August 2025, this is at best work in progress rather than a settled fact. Added to this, is the fact that as far as the pecking order is concerned India is beginning to be seen as a junior partner in the ‘Troika’ of China, Russia and India.
Positioning in the world of today, I wish to additionally point out that while South and West Asia have been beset by problems of varying magnitude for several months – and the US, China and other powers have been active here – India’s absence from a region where it once exercised maximum traction has been deafening indeed. India’s non-involvement in events affecting Iran, Syria and Palestine, also highlight the extent to which India has become a ‘recessed power’ across this vital region. All this does impact India’s overall image in the councils of the world.
India’s loss of influence at a time of economic growth cannot be easily explained. At one level, it possibly stems from being out of step with ground realities, and of not adapting enough to changing situations. India’s improved relations with Europe and the UK at this time counts for little in this context. India withstanding US President Trump’s pressure on the purchase of oil from Russia has been a relief, but has not produced any kind of dividend. Most glaring of all has been India’s retreat from Southeast Asia, West Asia and Africa. These regions have been India’s bailiwick over the years.
Conclusion
18. In conclusion, it is evident from what I just mentioned – and notwithstanding India’s growth and professed leadership of the Global South – that India stands at the cross-roads of global politics today. We need to rectify this situation. Our policy directions need to be firmer and more agile to keep up with the current trends across the world. Our neighbourhood policy needs a total revamp. Positioning India in today’s world demands a complete overhaul of India’s strategic thought processes. It also requires a new vision and better foresight.
Thank you.
