MMA Annual Convention 2025
Panelists address global shifts, emphasizing India’s resilience through foreign policy continuity, autonomy, tech-readiness, and domestic strength while navigating evolving security challenges in a multipolar world.
It’s not enough to excel economically…
Amb T S Tirumurti, IFS (Retd)
Former Ambassador / Permanent Representative of India to the UN and Former Secretary, MEA
We have now entered an era of conflicts marked by violations of international law, not only with impunity but also without accountability. We face global challenges like climate change and energy concerns. Therefore, this is the right time to discuss geopolitical resilience.
However, geopolitical resilience is not as easy to quantify as economic, financial, or infrastructural resilience. I plan to outline five attributes that India possesses, which can enhance our geopolitical resilience, primarily focusing on the foreign policy aspect.
Continuity in Foreign Policy: Our governments have built upon the foreign policy successes of their predecessors, creating a thread of continuity. This is a key attribute of India’s resilience. Unlike the significant foreign policy swings seen in other countries, such as the United States when power transitions between Democrats and Republicans, India maintains a consistent approach. A prime example is how we have preserved the nuclear option and refused to sign the NPT. This stance has enjoyed parliamentary consensus. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi initiated Pokhran-I in 1974, followed by Prime Minister Vajpayee with Pokhran-II in 1998. Notably, in 1996, Prime Minister Deve Gowda decided against signing the CTBT. This demonstrates the resilience built into our system.
Domestic Policy as a Driver: Domestic policies drive our foreign policy. Thanks to our unique freedom struggle, India had a strong moral voice in international affairs, particularly within the Non-Aligned Movement, where we took an independent stance. With India’s economic, technological, and defence advancements, our voice in international affairs has grown stronger. Domestic resilience has thus promoted geopolitical resilience. As we rise as a country, we seek a greater voice in global matters, such as UN reforms, advocating for a permanent seat in the Security Council, given our contributions to the UN. It’s not enough to excel economically; we must also engage politically in world conflicts. I advocate for a larger role in conflicts, even those not directly impacting us, as our growing influence means they will eventually affect us.
Independence of Action and Decision-Making (Strategic Autonomy): We are fortunate to have independence in our foreign policy decisions, or strategic autonomy. Many developing countries lack this due to their size, geographical vulnerabilities, or other factors. India’s rich tradition of statecraft, from the Arthashastra to the Tirukural, has enabled us to maintain this independence. During the Cold War, we formed the Non-Aligned Movement, a powerful political force. Today, facing a world with the United States/European Union on one side and China/Russia on the other, we again refuse to align with either bloc. We call this multi-alignment, engaging with all parties without joining a specific bloc. Our abstention vote on Ukraine reflects this stance. As Prime Minister Indira Gandhi said, “We stand upright,” when she was asked, “Do you lean left or right?”
Leadership: We have been fortunate to have Prime Ministers who focussed on foreign policy, regardless of political affiliations. Even those with short tenures like Lal Bahadur Shastri displayed resolve in this area. We have also provided leadership to developing countries, particularly the Global South, demonstrated by our efforts during our G20 presidency to ensure African representation. Our development partnerships, including assistance, grants, lines of credit, and human resource development, amount to over $35 billion.
Civilizational Context: We are increasingly conscious of our civilizational context. Initiatives like the International Day of Yoga, the International Year of Millets, the International Solar Alliance, the Vaccine Maitri during COVID, and public digital infrastructure all reflect this. We frame these efforts under the concept of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.” While it may sometimes seem like a slogan, we are actively trying to integrate it into our foreign policy.
US elections and global conflicts
Amb Kanwal Sibal, IFS (Retd)
Former Foreign Secretary of India
It’s very early days since President Trump took office on January 20th, and even in these few days, he has caused a huge amount of disruption in international politics, not to mention domestically. Trump has always been known for his transactionalism, but one might have thought that after his first term, he would have learned that transactionalism would not carry the United States too far and would face resistance. However, this time, we are faced with what I might call unadulterated transactionalism.
Trump’s Transactionalism
International relations are not built on transactionalism. If they were, instead of the UN Charter, we could have had a business model on how nations should deal with each other. But we have the UN Charter, international law, principles governing international relations, history, national sentiment, and the complexity of relations between countries. There are cross-cutting issues internationally, which, if countries don’t cooperate and sacrifice some degree of their national interest, will not be resolved and could put humanity at peril. One of the most important issues is climate change. Religion also plays a significant role in governing international relations.
We find that Trump is discarding established norms almost with impunity. Look at his territorial claims. In his inaugural address, he slipped in a few words about the expansion of the United States. The media didn’t focus on it. He has laid claim to Greenland, which is puzzling in terms of international relations. This is 19th-century politics, not the politics of today.
Greenland for a Free World?
He had a difficult conversation with the Prime Minister of Denmark, stating that he needs Greenland for the protection of the free world. It’s unclear how India, part of the free world, would benefit from the United States claiming Greenland or occupying it by force. The Prime Minister of Denmark offered more bases and investment opportunities in Greenland, but Trump is determined to acquire the territory by force if necessary. The idea is that the Arctic route will open up due to climate change, and the United States wants a significant role in managing it, competing with Russia and China.
Similarly, Trump laid claim to the Panama Canal. The fact that the United States built the Panama Canal in 1908 is irrelevant. The British and French built the Suez Canal in 1956 and launched military aggression against Egypt when it nationalised the canal, which the United States opposed. Now, Trump is claiming the Panama Canal because China manages part of the port in Panama. This creates problems in international relations and American policy, reminiscent of the Monroe Doctrine in Latin America.
The World Policeman
He is also laying claim to Canada, wanting to incorporate it into the United States, showing little concern for how the rest of the world views these territorial claims. This unilateralism of the United States has been revived under Trump. One might have thought that after the unilateral phase of US foreign policy under President Bush Jr., the lessons learned would have made the United States more cautious in playing the role of a world policeman. But Trump is determined to impose his will on others.
Weaponising Tariffs
The United States has weaponised the financial system, and now Trump is weaponising tariffs. He has unilaterally announced tariffs: 25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico, 10% on China, and threatened 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel exports to the United States. He has threatened BRICS with 100% tariffs and said the United States will impose as many tariffs on other countries as they impose on US products. This will break down the only system governing international trade, the WTO.
To my mind, the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) agenda is a reassertion of US primacy. It reflects Trump’s belief, or that of his base, that the US has lost ground in recent years, especially with China’s rise, and must recover this lost ground. Making America great again is not just a domestic goal but also an international one, aiming to impose its will on others using America’s inherent strengths.
Walking Out of Accords
Disregards for Trump has stated that any move by any country to de-dollarise will result in 100% tariffs on that country. He is breaking down the already declining multilateralism in international affairs. He has walked out of the WHO, the Paris Climate Change Agreement, and the UN Human Rights Commission. He shows disregard for the Global South, undermining the leadership role we have managed to take during our presidency of the G20 when we expanded it to G21 by including the African Union as a permanent member.
Now, trends indicate that he will combat the Global South’s increasing importance in international affairs, affecting India’s role as a leader of the Global South. The US Secretary of State has announced that he will not attend the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in South Africa due to dissatisfaction with South Africa’s domestic land acquisition policies. The G20 is the only body that includes both the G7 and rising economies, playing an influential role. If the G20 is weakened by non-participation, there will be no global forum to manage and harmonize the divergent interests of developed and developing countries.
US-Russia Policies: Watch Out!
Trump’s politics towards Russia are unclear. He has claimed he wants to find a solution, initially saying he would do so in 24 hours, then giving himself 100 days. He has announced contact with President Putin, and there has been a change in President Zelenskyy’s language, indicating that Ukraine cannot rely solely on the European Union in its conflict with Russia.
However, finding a solution is difficult because Russia’s demands are clear: Ukraine must be neutral, cannot join NATO, and the territories acquired by Russia must be recognized as Russian. There must also be security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia. It is challenging for the United States or Trump to make concessions on these points without facing condemnation from Europe, domestic Democrats, and US lobbies. This would be seen as a strategic defeat for the United States, undermining NATO’s basic charter, which allows any country to join.
Denying Ukraine’s right to join NATO would create serious divisions between Europe and the United States. Trump has previously questioned NATO’s relevance, suggesting that Europe cannot ensure its security without the United States. The Baltic States and Poland depend on the US for security, and Germany hosts several US bases, including nuclear weapons. Europe is unlikely to accept France’s dominance, relying instead on the US nuclear umbrella for security against Russia.
Two Sides of a Coin
A couple of positive actions by Trump include his strong pushback against wokeism, which has had a significant effect on other countries, including India, where this social issue had begun to complicate society. On immigration, Trump has taken robust steps to deal with illegal immigrants, sending 104 Indian illegal immigrants back to India in a military plane. This has caused political reactions in India and embarrassed the government. Trump wants to convey that he will be tough on this issue with allies and everyone, including India. There are two sides to this issue, and I won’t delve into whether he is right or wrong.
On Modi’s visit to the United States, Trump has already made his expectations known in the White House readout of his telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Modi. Apart from some positive remarks about the relationship going forward, Trump emphasised the need for more market access to India, reduced tariffs, and increased purchases of security equipment, including defence material from the United States. They want to sell the Stryker armoured vehicle, the Javelin anti-tank missile, and aircraft like the F-35, which was showcased at the Bangalore show. There will be pressure on us, and we need to see how this fits into our Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) initiative in defence manufacturing.
Balancing Russia and China
We need to find ways to satisfy Trump on tariffs. Some budget decisions theoretically open up possibilities for US products in India, but this is not serious. We want to engage in trade negotiations with the United States, aiming for a bilateral trade agreement where both sides give something. It can’t be done unilaterally. For that, Trump needs permission from Congress to enter into trade negotiations.
Regarding technology, we had the ICET (Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies), a major plank of our expanding technological cooperation with the United States. It was making progress, though slowly, and was handled by the national security advisors on both sides. This will continue, but Trump will rebrand it. There’s also the issue of H-1B visas, which is of great interest to our business community. Trump has made contradictory statements on this, wanting highly talented people but also limiting legal migration. Let’s see what the final decision will be.
Modi and Trump: A Personnel Connect
There is a personal rapport between Modi and Trump, and there is hope that we can attenuate some of the unreasonable demands made on us and engage him at the highest level. Some of Trump’s key appointees, including the Secretary of State, the National Security Adviser, and the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, have a positive attitude towards India. This is nothing new, and we can count on them including the US Vice President Vance to help address some of Trump’s aggressive demands.
The issue of Islamic terrorism is another area where we could strengthen our cooperation. Trump used strong language in his inaugural speech, and this could be a point of collaboration. There is also the nuclear issue, specifically modular nuclear reactors. This will be discussed during Modi’s visit, though we are cautious about developing our own technology and not becoming dependent on others.
When our foreign minister visited the United States for the inauguration, it was remarkable that they had the Quad meeting, and the first foreign visitor the new US Secretary of State met was the Indian Foreign Minister, even before the Japanese Foreign Minister. In diplomacy, these gestures have meaning. People surrounding Trump are extremely hawkish on China, making India a valuable partner in that larger context. Although Trump himself makes conflicting statements on China, he publicly invited President Xi Jinping to his inauguration and stated that the US and China working together could solve the world’s problems. US policy will remain targeted at China as a competitor, but they also want to manage that vital relationship and maintain stability. In this context, India has value, and Trump is expected to attend the Quad summit in India this autumn.
The dynamics of national security
Lt Gen S L Narasimhan, PVSM AVSM VSM
Former Member, NSAB & DG, Centre for Contemporary China Studies
To frame our discussion, consider that national security today is no longer confined to conventional threats. We must address both traditional and non-traditional security issues.
Traditional security encompasses military aggression—from ground conflicts to space warfare—as well as espionage, economic warfare, and resource conflicts. Non-traditional security covers challenges such as climate change, health crises (like the COVID-19 pandemic), food security, energy and technology disruptions, and issues related to illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and water security.
For effective national security and resilience, we must view these threats together. National security is not limited solely to territorial integrity and sovereignty—such as defending against border attacks from countries like China or Pakistan—but also includes threats that affect our daily lives. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed entire nations, reshaping our understanding of security.
Shifting Security Priorities
Security concerns often shift between traditional and non-traditional priorities. Before COVID, health issues were rarely considered a security threat; the pandemic sharply refocused our attention on public health. Similarly, incidents like the Galwan clash redirected focus toward territorial security. Moreover, traditional threats can extend beyond borders and evolve into global challenges. The war in Ukraine, for instance, affected global grain, fertilizer, and oil supplies—undermining food and energy security worldwide. Likewise, piracy in regions like the Gulf of Aden increases shipping risks and drives up insurance costs, illustrating the interconnected nature of these threats.
The Current Scenario of Indian National Security
Border Security: India faces challenges along its active borders—both western and northern—as well as through trans-regional movements along porous areas like the Myanmar border.
Internal Insurgencies: We contend with insurgencies in the Northeast, in Jammu and Kashmir, and from Maoist elements operating within the country. Although most areas are largely under control (with a few exceptions, such as in Manipur), insurgency remains a persistent challenge.
Cyber Security: As evidenced during the Galwan incident, cyber attacks can disrupt critical infrastructure—like the Western electrical grid—and have a profound impact on daily life.
Our vulnerability to external events became evident in January and February 2020, when China’s lockdown due to COVID-19 caused significant manufacturing disruptions in India. This highlighted our extreme dependency on intermediates and machinery from China, posing a severe national security risk. Active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are another critical vulnerability, as our reliance on external supply chains affects our manufacturing and sustainability.
Economic warfare, such as China’s trade deficit with India and the numerous non-tariff barriers hindering our exports, affects this vulnerability. Similarly, the ongoing US-China tariff war impacts our security. Ambassador Sibal mentioned Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on India, which further underscores the economic warfare we face.
Non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, water scarcity, and energy challenges, also pose significant risks. For instance, China’s plan to build a dam on the Brahmaputra River threatens downstream water security in India. As a water-stressed country, our future water requirements are becoming increasingly problematic. Climate change affects us all, as does energy security.
Indo-Pacific Dynamics
In the Indo-Pacific region, groups of countries are increasingly influential. From the Pacific Island countries to ASEAN, South Asia, Central Asia, and Africa, regional dynamics are shifting. The interplay between China’s Maritime Silk Road and the Europe-proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will shape the future. The West Asian countries will have a major role in this dynamic, with military bases and strategic interests coming into play. China’s aspirations to build military bases in the Indian Ocean add complexity to Indo-Pacific relations.
China’s Strategy Toward India
China aims to deny India opportunities multilaterally, gain regional dominance, and apply bilateral pressure on boundary and economic issues. India’s response involves cautious external balancing, maintaining relations with key global players like the US, Russia, the EU, and West Asia, and participating in various multilateral groupings. Building deterrence against China is crucial, and initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) are essential for resilience.
Technological Challenges
China’s advancements in cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence pose significant threats. The Chinese PLA’s order for one million drones by 2026 highlights their technological ambitions. India must scale up efforts in areas like AI, quantum technology and space surveillance to keep pace with China’s developments.
