Lt Gen P R Shankar
MMA, in association with Colours of Glory, presented the Sixth S. Muthiah Memorial Lecture on the topic “India as a Global Player: The Challenges in a Multipolar World”, delivered by Lt Gen P.R. Shankar, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Veteran), Former Director General of Artillery and Professor, Department of Aerospace Engineering, IIT Madras.
A couple of years ago, a Chinese cartoon depicted a world map being pulled in four directions—by the leaders of India, the United States, China, and Russia. What’s interesting is that the cartoon acknowledged India as one of the four major powers shaping the world. While the Chinese recognise our growing influence, we are yet to fully acknowledge it ourselves.
Today, the world is grappling with three major conflicts: one in Ukraine, another in Gaza and West Asia, and a third—often overlooked—brewing in the South China Sea. This third conflict involves rising tensions between China on one side and Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, and others on the opposite side. Meanwhile, in relations with India, Pakistan is hot, China hotter and Bangladesh the hottest. We are living through turbulent times. But these challenges do not weaken us—they make us stronger. India gains strength amid these global conflicts.
We are also in the midst of a global tariff war and it’s often unclear who is aligned with whom. This lack of clarity reflects the complexity of the new multipolar order. At times, it even feels uncertain whether countries like the United States or China are internally aligned in their own policies.
Global economic trends are diverging sharply, and the future remains uncertain. The tariff war may not lead to growth, but rather to stagnation—possibly even deflation or economic regression. We are entering an era of deep unpredictability.
Global Economic Shifts and India’s USP
If we look at the ten or twelve largest economies by GDP—many of which were once global superpowers—most of them are now in decline. Italy, Germany, and Japan, for instance, have all seen their influence wane, and there’s little indication that they’ll regain their earlier stature. In fact, if anything, they may continue to regress. A key reason for this is demographic decline.
Three years ago, everyone spoke of China as the world’s second-largest economy. That may still be technically true, but even today, we’re unsure of the actual size of China’s GDP. Is it $17 trillion? $12 trillion? Or even $10 trillion? The credibility of the figures is questionable.
In contrast, India is poised to sustain consistent growth—over 6% annually—even amid global trade wars and an uncertain economic climate. The foundation of this resilience is our people—our demography. While Western nations and China are facing demographic declines on a scale unprecedented in human history, India’s youthful and growing population remains our greatest asset.
Economies are built not just by machines or military might, but by people—and that’s a truth we often overlook. India’s demographic dividend, coupled with its deep-rooted cultural fabric—whether Aryan, Dravidian, Hindu, Muslim, or any other thread—reflects a pluralistic society that fosters resilience and growth. We are not inventing something new; we are simply returning to the stature we once held before colonisation eroded our autonomy and degraded us.
The Global Disorder and India’s Rise
The rules-based international order is being disrupted in a big way—primarily by China and the United States. It is within this atmosphere of disorder that India must grow and assert itself as a major power. In fact, we are already a major power.
America is striving to regain its global hegemony by acting aggressively on multiple fronts. Donald Trump, in particular, is reportedly eyeing strategic influence over Greenland, Canada, Mexico, and Panama, as part of a larger effort to revive the Monroe Doctrine—asserting that the Western Hemisphere is unequivocally American turf.
Simultaneously, he is working to bring an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict and to restore some semblance of order in West Asia. He is also ramping up pressure on Iran and confronting China on multiple fronts. Trump appears driven by two convictions: first, that for America to be ‘great again’, it must resume its role as the world’s unquestioned policeman; and second, that China must be contained. And he is pursuing that goal step by step.
China’s Illusion of Dominance vs. India’s Potential
Many people still believe that China is poised to rise and dominate the world. That’s unlikely to happen—for a simple reason: its population is shrinking. A recession is looming over China, and the demographic decline is irreversible. India, by contrast, is uniquely positioned to pull the world out of the next global recession. We are both a large consuming market and a country with the potential to manufacture at scale. India is the only real alternative to China—not just in terms of capacity, but in terms of human capital as well.
Of course, we face resistance. There is a deeply entrenched bias—either from the Anglo-Saxon West or from the China-oriented East—that tends to deride or downplay India’s potential. That’s a challenge we must confront. Yet, increasingly, global leaders are beginning to admit: “We cannot move forward without India.”
Meanwhile, China is facing a multi-dimensional crisis. I call it ‘the crumbling Wall of China’. The country is reeling from the impacts of climate change and internal political instability. Since the eras of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and the Tiananmen Square protests, we haven’t seen this level of political volatility. There are growing tensions between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the political leadership, as well as within the political establishment itself—especially since Xi Jinping has not yet designated a successor. This power vacuum is bound to create more uncertainty. And sooner or later, that instability will spill over and affect the rest of the world.
Impact of Climate Change
China is feeling the effects of climate change more intensely than many realise. Let me give you a simple example. If a storm hits the coast near Chennai, the damage is severe because the area is highly developed. But if the same storm makes landfall 20 or 30 kilometres down the coast where there’s little development, the impact is minimal. Maybe a few coconut trees fall, but that’s about it.
China, however, is highly developed and urbanised. Its cities are built in areas prone to natural disasters, and every year it suffers increasing climate-related damage. This is worsened by poor environmental practices. Regions that historically never faced droughts are now experiencing them, and areas once immune to floods are seeing more frequent and intense flooding. Believe me—by 2030, we will be looking at a very different China. Four years ago, when I wrote that China was headed toward a demographic decline, many people laughed. But just last year, China officially admitted that its population is shrinking and the truth is, they have no viable solutions.
The tariff war has only exacerbated the issue. Rising costs make goods unaffordable, jobs are being lost, and the general population is living with a sense of uncertainty about the future. In such an environment, people are reluctant to have children. And when birth rates fall, population declines—and when population declines, the economy inevitably contracts. This is basic logic.
China’s Domestic Struggles and Strategic Focus
Over the past three to four years, several pillars of China’s economy have suffered—private sector growth, consumer demand, real estate, food security, employment, infrastructure, exports, and even healthcare. The government is now desperately urging people to consume: “Buy air conditioners, buy cars, buy appliances.” But it’s not working.
They’ve already experienced a massive property crash and a manufacturing slowdown. Even the so-called auto boom—where Chinese cars are being heavily pushed—covers a deeper issue. Inside China, there’s what I call an ‘involution’: massive production, minimal profits, and rising inefficiencies.
Despite all these internal challenges, China continues to project strength in three key areas: diplomacy, technology, and the military. These are its strategic spearheads, even as its economic foundation becomes increasingly fragile.
Failing Diplomacy and Fragile Military
Diplomatically, China has lost global trust—especially after COVID. Its credibility is severely damaged. In terms of technology, yes, China has made significant progress. And its military is strong on paper—but it is riddled with internal problems.
In the past 10 years alone, 14 full generals, 26 lieutenant generals, and 50 major generals have been sacked. This includes two defence ministers. The Central Military Commission—one of the most powerful bodies in the Communist regime—has been halved because many of its top officials have been arrested or purged by Xi Jinping. Worse, there are no credible replacements to fill the vacuum. That’s the real story behind China’s so-called military might. So far, I’ve spoken about the two largest global powers—the United States and China. Let me now turn to Europe.
Europe and the Return of Militarisation
Europe is in disarray. It outsourced its energy security to Russia, its manpower to Islamic countries, and its overall economic and military security to the United States. Now, with those pillars crumbling, Europe is lost—and unsure of its next move. Suddenly, there’s talk of remilitarisation. And history has taught us that when Europe remilitarises, the world is pushed towards war. That’s how it has always been.
In the next five to ten years, we are likely to witness a surge in militarisation across the world. And when someone becomes over-militarised, they are more likely to start a conflict. A hungry man with weapons and no way to survive will inevitably be drawn to fight. That’s the kind of global uncertainty we are walking into.
The Great Balancing Player
In this context, let me focus on India. The equation between China and India will remain strained for a long time—I don’t think it will ever return to what it once was. China will never give up its support for Pakistan. The Chinese have been strategically foolish, as we overlooked many things and allowed them to establish a strong presence in our country until they attacked our army in Eastern Ladakh in 2020. Suddenly, the whole of India has woken up, and we are no longer interested in buying cheap Chinese goods.
India is a strategic partner of both Russia and the USA, despite the historical rivalry between the two. Can the US or Russia balance China on their own? No—they need India. People often speak of a strong friendship between Russia and China, but Russia seeks a hedge against China and leverages its relationship with India. The US is determined to counter China but cannot do so without India. As a result, India has already emerged as a global balancer.
Consider it dispassionately: following the Pahalgam attack, even the Chinese ambassador in Delhi condemned terrorism in a tweet. This is the same China that once vetoed the designation of Hafiz Saeed as an international terrorist—its stance has shifted. Trump was the first to openly denounce this as ‘nonsense’. Yet the same America had previously supported Pakistan during the Parliament attack. Russia has always stood by India, but even Russia now engages with Pakistan to a significant extent. In the complex web of international relations, tensions abound, but no one—not even Pakistan—can afford to disregard India.
The World Trusts India
The West and the Global South trust India. Whether in Africa, Myanmar, or Southeast Asia, people trust Indians. They don’t mind seeking security from the USA or relying on China to stabilise their economies, but when it comes to trust and a hedge factor, they turn to India. They need a fallback nation—and that nation is India. India is emerging as a global player, and this transformation is already underway. In just five to ten years, you will see significant shifts.
We must also recognise that India sits at the heart of the world’s major populations. We are positioned at the centre of key conflict zones, which presents opportunities. Nations come to us. The USA is not at the centre of population growth, nor is China. Meanwhile, India has begun exporting defence equipment, and this upward trend is irreversible. In 2010, The Hindu published an article stating that India was a country in search of artillery, and that we had artillery in search of ammunition. Yet by 2024, we are exporting both ammunition and artillery. In just 14 years, a remarkable shift has taken place.
The Indian Navy has always been Atmanirbhar—self-reliant. While we are still working to strengthen our capacity, we prioritise our own needs before assisting others. Yet even so, many in the USA, which is striving to rebuild its naval strength, recognise that there is no available capacity elsewhere. Their solution? Leveraging Indian shipyards. In a year or two, you will see American stakeholders lining up here, because if they wish to remilitarise, they lack the manpower and the factories to do so. They have no choice but to turn to India—they will not go to China.
Through every disaster, India has extended a helping hand—whether in times of war, through vaccines for typhoid or COVID, or in the aftermath of floods and earthquakes. Time and again, we have stepped forward.
The New Nuclear Landscape
We are also at the centre of a new nuclear growth story. People used to talk about a nuclear triangle—China, India, and Pakistan. It’s no longer a triangle; China, Pakistan, Iran, India, and Israel are all there and USA is already a major nuclear power in the mix.
While the global economy is going through a lot of uncertainty, India is emerging as a stabilising force. Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman tweeted against Pakistan recently because they’ve realised that wealth alone isn’t enough. They need something deeper to sustain that wealth. If not, it will disappear—either the Americans will take it, or the Chinese will. That’s why they trust India. That’s why they are coming here and setting up the biggest oil refineries in the world.
On the other side, there’s a growing headache. China, Russia, North Korea, the USA, South Korea, and Japan are all looking to expand or upgrade their nuclear capabilities. And when they do, others will follow. That’s how a global nuclear race begins. Where is India in this nuclear race? That’s something we need to seriously think about. And we must stay ahead in this race—not for military reasons alone, but because we are an energy-deficient nation. One viable path forward is nuclear energy. Alongside renewables, nuclear energy offers us a long-term solution.
The Unstoppable India
We have one of the largest untapped reserves of thorium in the world. India has already developed a three-stage nuclear program based on thorium, and it’s set to provide nearly 15% of our future energy needs. It’s happening right here—in Kalpakkam. Just last year, our Prime Minister inaugurated the second-stage loading of the thorium fuel cycle. Today, most of our cities are well-connected by air. We are increasingly urbanised, mobile, and globally integrated.
India’s rise is unstoppable. If you look at Germany, Japan, and China, all three were aided economies. They benefited from Western support and enjoyed a peace dividend—Japan and Germany after the Second World War, and China following the Vietnam War for 30 to 40 years. India, however, had no such advantage. We faced opposition, sanctions, and wars—yet we continue to grow. No matter the circumstances, India moves forward.
We have endured proxy wars and insurgencies in Punjab and Kashmir, and we have overcome them. India stands as the only country in the world that has successfully eliminated insurgencies and restored peace—perhaps with the exception of Ireland. Our approach has always been humane, ensuring that people are treated with dignity. In the long run, this approach has yielded lasting results.
Challenges in India’s Geopolitical Landscape
In our immediate neighbourhood, we face the looming threat of collusion between China and Pakistan. We are operating in an intense nuclear environment and are constantly subjected to proxy warfare. This is one of the most complex and consequential regions in the world—and it directly impacts India’s growth trajectory. What happened in Pahalgam is a stark reminder of this complexity.
Surrounding us are Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan—each dealing with some form of instability. Our relationships with these countries have been episodic, shifting with political winds. In Sri Lanka, it’s a revolving door: every new government brings a new foreign policy approach. It’s the same story with others.
Take Afghanistan, for example. At one point, we rejected the “bad Taliban.” Today, we’re working with the “good Taliban.” That’s the nature of realpolitik. We have to engage with whoever is in power, but many of these actors pose indirect threats, often by becoming hosts for others. Bangladesh, for instance, has increasingly become a conduit for Chinese influence. Nepal, too, has seen a rising pro-China narrative—even to the extent of China claiming that Buddhism originated in China. That’s the kind of narrative warfare we are up against.
Ethnic Overflow and Internal Pressures
Another challenge is ethnic spillover and migration pressure. Walk down any street in Chennai and you’ll find three or four Nepalese doing small jobs. We need them because local populations have moved on to better opportunities. But such demographic movements create ethnic transfers and sociopolitical ripples. This has been a recurring issue. Sri Lanka once influenced local politics in Tamil Nadu. Pakistan directly impacted politics in Punjab and Kashmir. Bangladesh is now influencing the political landscape in West Bengal. These cross-border dynamics can undermine grassroots democracy, distorting the local discourse and political stability.
This is a time to revisit the wisdom of Chanakya. In fact, studying Chanakya’s political economy may be more relevant today than courses from the Wharton School or Harvard Business School. And not just Chanakya—even the Ramayana and Mahabharata offer enduring lessons in statecraft and strategy.
The world beyond our neighbourhood is also full of opportunities and challenges. Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, South Korea, Japan, ASEAN countries, and Australia—all these regions need India. They’re looking to engage with us. But we must be mindful: the Middle East is in turmoil, and Africa has been in conflict for decades. In fact, last year saw the highest number of deaths in Africa in recent times—especially in the Sahel region along the Tropic of Cancer, where dozens of people die every day due to conflict and humanitarian collapse.
Changing Power Equations
In our neighbourhood, we have abundant energy and trade linkages. Many of them are deeply rooted in civilisational history. Take Malappuram in Kerala, for instance. It is a Muslim-majority belt not because of invasion, but because of historical trade with the Arabs. The Islam practiced in Kerala is very different from the Islam seen in the north. One came through commerce, the other through conquest. This distinction is important because it tells us something: for a growing economy and a growing population like ours, these civilisational trade linkages are a massive opportunity. Countries like Japan have stood by us in our most difficult times over many decades. That loyalty matters, and we must not forget it.
When we talk about arms and ammunition dependency, it doesn’t stem just from what we buy today. It comes from the long history of defence procurement. For instance, we still fly Mirage jets, which means we need spares from France. Our army still runs Russian tanks. Even if we don’t buy new ones from Russia now, we still depend on them for maintenance and spares. These are forward linkages, and they shape long-term strategic partnerships. That’s why Russia and France have remained dependable allies. We’ve procured Rafales from France, and for the next 50 or 60 years, we’re locked into that ecosystem—regardless of the fact that France may also sell Mirages or Rafales to Pakistan. That’s the reality of power politics. But we are emerging as a major power, and we have to manage these relationships as a mature nation. These are part of the changing global power equations.
Our Challenges and Focus Areas
We are disaster-prone. When storms strike every year, someone has to step in to rescue people—and we rescue each other. Over time, we have developed ways to cope with the challenges posed by climate change.
Beyond that, we face strategic dependencies. We must develop our own technology, which presents a significant challenge. Then there is politics—never quite healthy in India. Politicians tend to care only if and when their party is in power. In the past ten years, Centre–State relations have deteriorated from bad to worse. Our politics have become increasingly polarised—on religion, language, and other identity-based factors. These are essentially power struggles, and as we grow, these divisions could deepen and be exploited by others. We lack a strategic culture. We don’t think big. The situation in Jammu & Kashmir is showing signs of improvement, notwithstanding the recent incident in Pahalgam. However, Manipur remains in turmoil. Ethnic and religious divisions continue to affect many parts of our society. We also lack a strong defence industrial base. And last but not least, we suffer from inadequate budgets and limited capacities. These are the issues we must address and manage.
