Category: Panel discussions

Afghanistan under Taliban: What does it mean for India & the World

Read Time:12 Minute

On the first day of the second instance of Taliban rule in Kabul, the scenes played out at the city’s international airport, reminded many of us of the end of Vietnam War,” said Mr Peter Rimmele in his introductory remarks.
“Women are now barely visible in Afghanistan’s streets and markets; posters of women have been hastily painted over throughout the cities and the sharia law has returned, all signs indicating that the Taliban reign of terror has made yet another comeback and the clock has been turned back by 20 years,” he said.
He regretted that Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung which had been active in Kabul since 2002 supporting several educational projects and other peace initiatives had to close its office now and evacuate its personnel to safety, like many other organisations. He termed the withdrawal of the US military as a hasty political decision and one that was poorly executed.
Mr Peter Rimmele felt that the US focused more on military aspects than on development, during these 20 years. “Because of corrupt officials, the humanitarian aid did not reach the people,” he pointed out and cautioned that the western allies which turned a blind eye to these developments now have to face the consequences.
He was categorical that the Taliban assurances of not meddling in Kashmir cannot be trusted. “The earlier regime of Taliban was a safe haven for terrorists,” he said and expressed his opinion that the vacuum created in Afghanistan cannot be filled by Taliban and their control would be limited. There will be infighting and power battle in Afghanistan and as an offshoot, terrorism will be a problem for India and the world, he predicted.
The helicopter scene from 2001
Initiating the panel discussion, Ms Indrani Bagchi stated that the increased sense of threat perception from the Afghan developments is because of the fear that what happened in Afghanistan may not just be restricted to Afghanistan. According to her, people who have studied Afghanistan feel that this development should have been expected, knowing the Taliban.

“They (the US) just fought a one year war, twenty times over…”

She reckoned that there will be two lines of India’s engagement with Afghanistan: One, the investments that India has made in Afghanistan and their people for the last 20 years, and two, India’s own security, viewed in the context of the Taliban and its relationship with terror sponsors.
She urged the panel to deliberate on the degree of control that can be exercised by Taliban, the political and military actions that will follow, the fate of resistance that they face in the Panjshir valley, the role that will be played by regional partners – Pakistan and China and the other regional players like Iran, Russia, Qatar and Turkey, the fate of ISI sponsored and radical Islamic terror and if the US will remain engaged with the new Afghan dispensation, and if so, how.
On a concluding note, Indrani Bagchi recalled a scene from the past – 22 December 2001- when Hamid Karzai took over the Presidency of Afghanistan, which was attended by India’s then Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh with a small team including Indrani Bagchi.
“We boarded a helicopter at Bagram to fly to Kabul with Jaswant Singh. It was a Northern Alliance helicopter that was taking us. There was only one seat in the helicopter. Jaswant Singh occupied that seat and we were all standing. The door opened and one gentleman walked in from another flight. It was Ashraf Ghani who was going to become Hamid Karzai’s Finance Minister. Jaswant Singh with his impeccable manners and a gentleman to the end, stood up and gave his seat to Ashraf Ghani, a much younger man,” she narrated and added on a poignant note, “Twenty years later, on the 15th of August 2021, Ashraf Ghani had to leave Afghanistan in a helicopter. That scene of 2001 has stayed with me forever.”
Cracking the myths
Ambassador Rakesh Sood opined that while much has been written about the Afghan developments, there are many myths in the narratives and which need to be dispelled. Was it America’s longest war? No, he said. “They just fought a one year war, twenty times over. He attributed the US army’s inability to weaken the Taliban to the frequent changes of army generals and the failure of the US to go after the safe havens of the insurgents.
“The US war had ended on 31st Dec 2014 when President Obama announced the completion of Operation Enduring Freedom and launched Operation Resolute Support. After the surge of US military personnel which Obama had authorised, he had also begun the drawdown of the forces. Since then, US forces were in Afghanistan only to train and assist Afghan National Defence Security Forces and not in combat operation. The lead was since taken by the Afghan forces,” said Ambassador Rakesh Sood.
While people say that Afghan forces cannot fight, the fact is that they have been fighting the Taliban all these years, losing over 50,000 men while the US lost 67 soldiers since 2015. He also demystified the statement that US spent 2 T$ on Afghanistan. Of this, close to 1750 B$ was spent on the US military, including spend on US war veterans and the interest payments. Only about 40 B$ was spent by the US on governance, economy and development of Afghanistan.
He also disagreed with claims that US withdrawal was sudden. The process of legitimisation of the Taliban had begun much early, orchestrated by nations including Europe. In 2013, Taliban opened an office in Doha and in 2018, US began direct talks with them, he said.
He was firm in his conviction that Taliban 2.0 will be very much the same as Taliban 1.0, drawing inference from multiple reports of UN Sanctions Monitoring Committee which were prepared with intelligent inputs from many UN member nations.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) focussed on the origin of Islamic radicalism and traced it to Gen Zia Ul Huq’s taking over the power in Pakistan in 1977 to convert Pakistan to an Islamic state. It was the combination of US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia that created and funded the Mujahideens since 1981 and this led to many major developments, including the rise of Osama Bin Laden and 9/11.
He regretted that despite the Afghan National Defence Security Forces (ANDSF) losing 8000 soldiers every year in spite of having air support from the US forces, no audit was done on ANDSF as to why they suffered such huge casualty and what was their real capability. There were huge gaps in logistics; the fighting forces did not get even their food. The money that was intended for the forces had gone elsewhere, he regretted and ascribed these factors to their giving in to the Taliban’s final onslaught without offering much resistance.
“Kashmir was the main target of Islamic radicalism and Afghanistan was only an interim point in their journey,” according to Lt Gen Hasnain. He said that India has been doing a great work in Kashmir since 2017, busting the terror networks and, therefore, saying that there will be immediate ripple effects of the Afghan crisis in Kashmir may be far-fetched.
However, he hastened to add, that in the present situation, one should not merely focus on Kashmir but look beyond, not just at other places of India but also in the neighbouring nations like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Nepal and Maldives, for the effects of terrorism.
He suggested that India should work closely with Saudi and UAE and Kazakhstan and Iran, apart from the US, to handle the fallout of the Afghan developments.
Captain Alok Bansal said that one should have a thorough understanding of Islamic theology to unravel the Afghan developments and how it will develop. The Taliban are an ideologically committed organisation and they are committed to the establishment of an Islamic emirate. Their linkages with global jihadist movement are very strong. Righteous leadership and capture of territory are ingredients of Islamic theology. With the passage of time, this ideology will spread beyond Afghanistan, he said.

“Kashmir was the main target of Islamic radicalism and Afghanistan was only an interim point in their journey”

Recalling history, he pointed out that in its modern existence, Afghanistan had never been free from foreign influence. Afghan army was capable of fighting. But Afghans have an uncanny skill of sensing the impending doom. That is why their soldiers fled, in search of survival, he said.
He also attributed Taliban’s quick march into Kabul to a dramatic change in their strategy, by taking over the country’s Northern provinces and all the border posts thus starving the supply chains for the ANDSF (Afghan National Defence Security Forces). “This strategy was perhaps drawn by ISI. Also, the 300,000 strong Afghan army was overwhelmingly dependent on US contractors for its logistics support. One month ago, 80% of this logistics support was withdrawn, giving a clear message that the Ashraf Ghani government would go,” he said.
He remarked that the US under former US President Donald Trump not only legitimised but also enhanced the reputation of the Taliban. The US kept Ashraf Ghani and his team out of the talks and thus marginalised his regime. He dismissed claims that the Taliban government will be inclusive and said that their assurances mean nothing.
Captain Alok Bansal concluded that India will eventually have to fight the Taliban. The only question is: Will it be in Afghanistan, Srinagar or at the Wagah border?
In his concluding remarks, Mr Sathiya Moorthy, Director, ORF Chennai, said that it is too early to come to conclusions with the Afghan situation being too hazy. However, he suggested that India must engage with the Taliban.

There are shifts in the geo-political arrangements in the region. We are looking at new alliances / informal groupings between Pakistan, Russia, China, Qatar and Turkey while India works with the West and the US. How do you see the region shaping up?
Amb Rakesh Sood: In 2001, the US action in Afghanistan was supported by Russia and China. Twenty years later, the US-China and US-Russia relationship are under strain. US now looks at Russia and China as strategic rivals. There are sanctions on both Russia and China by the US. Russia feel that they have been let down with NATO expansion. China feels that US does not want them to rise further. The net result is that both Russia and China look at the US now very differently, compared to how they viewed it in 2001.
Even Iran provided intelligence to the US in their war against the Taliban. But they were later disappointed when they were labelled as the axis of evil by the Bush administration. China has developed closer ties with Pakistan and they have also invested heavily in the China-Pakistan economic corridor. Russia has increased its influence in the Central Asian countries. At the moment, we see a coming together of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran in dealing with the Taliban.
Do you believe that India will end up fighting the Taliban and if so, what is our preferred theatre?
Lt Gen Ata Hasnain: According to me, it is not the Taliban that will be fighting with India. Instead, the whole of Islamic radical ideology, propelled by Pakistan, will take on India. Pakistan has been projecting to be the flag bearer of Islam but it has not succeeded in doing so. They may start imagining that they are closer to that dream today. It will not be a conventional war but a hybrid war where we will see a battle of the mind and battle of ideology. India must learn to fight this hybrid war. We have not done badly in Kashmir but our focus so far has been on the physical neutralisation of terror networks. With correct international linkages, we must counter Pakistan in all its intents. We have to sensitise the world against discrimination of and atrocities happening to Muslims, both in China and Pakistan.
How should India deal with the ideology and forces unleashed on it?
Captain Alok Bansal: India has to create a counter-narrative and for this, one needs to understand theology. The counter narrative must be seeped in theology. Media and curriculum are the powerful tools that we should make use of.
How should India respond to the Afghan crisis?
Amb Rakesh Sood: We need to have options, evaluate them and decide on a course. At the moment, I am afraid, our options are limited, except to withdraw all Indian personnel from Afghanistan and bring them home. Unfortunately, we relied much on the government in Kabul and believed in the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace process. We have to wait and see how the situation evolves. These are early days yet and the situation is very fluid. We have to engage in, as the British described, masterly inactivity.
Why did the US fight the Taliban and now why are they legitimizing them?
Amb Rakesh Sood: When the Taliban came to power in 1996, the US did not have any enmity with them, in spite of the Taliban coming out with draconian Sharia rules and blowing up Bamyan Buddha statues. In 1996, Osama Bin Laden was brought to Sudan with US knowledge when Saudi refused to accept him. Even after 9/11, the US gave an ultimatum to Mullah Omar to turn in Osama Bin Laden and said they did not want to fight with them.
The Taliban came up with many conditions and sought more evidence of Bin Laden’s involvement in 9/11 and this angered the US. So on 7 Oct 2001, they attacked and ousted the Taliban. The US mission was focussed on counter-insurgency but they were never really equipped for that. That is why, for the last one decade, they were looking for ways to get out of Afghanistan. In the last few years, the US saw less of a threat perception from the Taliban.
Should India accept the Taliban offer of being a trading partner?
Amb Rakesh Sood: We cannot respond to every statement of the Taliban. We have to see the shape of the government that is coming up there and see who will call the shots.
Why do many people believe that the Taliban now have no linkages with terror groups?
Lt Gen Ata Hasnain: This has been projected primarily to the United States whose main focus is their homeland security. US has stipulated that the Afghan territory should not be used in any way to target the American homeland. If something sort of 9/11 happens, it will draw the ire of the US government, military and the people and we will never know the intensity with which they will respond. So, the Taliban is playing cool and they are not showing their true colours at the moment.
Was there a lack of nation building in Afghanistan? How does it affect nation building exercise elsewhere?
Captain Alok Bansal: Afghans have a fair amount of feeling of nationhood. What really lacked there was State building. The State institutions did not work out as envisaged. Right from the early days of its history, Afghanistan had been a decentralised feudal entity. There was an attempt at providing too much of centralisation. Governors were changed at the whims and fancies of the President. 80% of the officials were expatriates with dual citizenships, like Ashraf Ghani himself, who had two passports. Also, corruption became endemic.

Dealing with China: Strategic, Political & Economic Dimensions

Read Time:14 Minute

Mr Peter Rimmele, Resident Representative to India, KAS, delivered the introductory remarks in which he brought out the grave dangers that China is posing to the rest of the world and more so, to the democratically governed nations, by flouting all rules of the game, in its march to become an economic superpower, and coercing other nations that dare to question its practices.
He pointed out that China also poses a political challenge to global good governance. He highlighted the need for liberal democracies to recognise the scale of threat posed by China and to counter it. “The best countermeasure available to our liberal and open societies is to be vigilant and to combat China’s illiberal threats by exposing them,” he said and noted that media and counterintelligence have a big role to play in debunking the CCP’s disinformation war and influence campaign.
India, he said, has a major role to play in countering China as it shares a long border with China. He was optimistic that liberal democracies have the necessary tools to deal with the China challenge. However, he felt that they have to strengthen the instruments and be conscious of the enormity of the challenge.
Need for White Papers
In his Opening Remarks, Commodore R Seshadri Vasan, Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies, drew the attention of the audience to Prime Minister Modi’s Independence Day speech about the need to counter terrorism and expansionism, the latter alluding to China’s strong-arm tactics.
India, he said, has sent strong signals to its adversaries by its active participation in QUAD, resilient supply chain initiatives, vaccine diplomacy and its Indo-Pacific approach. According to Commodore Vasan, decoupling with China is a gradual process and it cannot happen overnight. While China has come out with many white papers on its defence policies, India has been floundering in coming out with such papers on its security objectives, he regretted. He remarked that the negative impression about China among liberal democracies has increased phenomenally and China may do a course correction, which will have global implications. He observed that India enjoys a big favour from its natural geography but wondered if it was making the right use of the geographical factors, to become a dominant player.
GDP Growth Should be Our Mantra
Ambassador Gautham Bambawale stated that April 2020 was an inflection point in Indo-China relations. By using force, China gave three signals:

  • To establish China as a pre-eminent power.
  • To knowingly violate many Indo-China agreements aimed at ensuring peace between the two countries.
  • China will determine its boundary by force and not through negotiations.

Though China has pulled its troops from some places in the Leh-Ladakh area, the Chinese threats at the border are far from being over. Asymmetry between India and China in economy, military power and technology has increased a lot, he said and ascribed this to China’s dominance.
He recommended that India needs to focus on maintaining 8% GDP growth year-on-year for the next 20 to 25 years to bridge the GDP gap. To achieve this, he suggested that India must speed up its reforms process in three major areas, namely moving away from micromanagement of economy, reducing the number of public enterprises and checking the erosion of the process of the rule of law so that all companies will have a level-playing field, irrespective of their relationship with the government of the day.
Such a reform process, Bambawale argued, will free up the Indian individuals and enable them to perform to the best of their abilities and enterprise. Through their efforts, India can easily achieve 8 to 9% GDP growth per annum, he said.
Different Groups; Different Strategies
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan, PVSM, AVSM, VSM, Member of the National Security Advisory Board, spoke about how China deals with different groups of countries using different strategies for each group.
South Asia: It initially started with Covid diplomacy to Nepal, Afghanistan, Pakistan and extended it to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Apart from Covid diplomacy, it relies on plurilateral meetings, visits, OBOR (One Belt, One Road) and making its presence in the internal affairs.
ASEAN: China and ASEAN have a closer relationship. It works based on a CoC (Code of Conduct for South China Sea); it also plays on differences and increased dependency of the countries on China.
C + C5 (China + Central Asian Republic). The initial meetings started with Covid diplomacy and now they are covering other aspects as well.
West Asia: When Mr Wang Yi visited Saudi on March 21, he proposed a Five Point initiative on achieving security and stability in the Middle East. The five points are advocating mutual respect, upholding equity and justice, achieving non-proliferation, jointly fostering collective security and accelerating development cooperation.
EU (European Union): China is focusing on Central and East European nations and Western Europe. Acquisition of technology companies and controlling of ports is the strategy followed.
USA: By developing bipartisan views, increasing assets in the supply chain and by trade.
Russia: China has developed closer relations with Russia. As both are termed revisionist powers, they have come together.
Spreading Wings of Influence
China increases its global influence through various ways:
By acquiring commercial interests in global ports and terminals.
By occupying positions of influence in the United Nations.
Through OBOR, digital silk road and health silk roads
By setting global standards in 5G and Internet standards.
Though there is a hue and cry for decoupling from China and there is a lot of talk about companies trying to exit China, the ground reality, in numbers, is quite contrary to this. During the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP has increased sharply, unemployment rate has come down, forex reserves and trade surplus have gone up substantially, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. This is an eye opener and we need to take note of this.
India must actively engage with friendly countries and the countries with which China is engaging, focus on innovation and R&D, increase its risk taking approach and have a long-term view.
China’s Priorities
Mr Santhosh Pai, Partner, Link Legal, gave an overview of the driving forces of China’s Xi era, its external forces and domestic priorities–political, economic and strategic. Personalisation of power, centralization of institutions, doing away with the Politics-Economics divide and data emerging as a power differentiator have marked the Xi-era. The private industry has been cut to size in China.
Dual circulation, three-child policy and avoiding the middle income trap have become China’s top domestic priorities. The trust that nations had in China has decreased while the risks of dealing with it have increased. Due to this, the global supply chains are trying to move away from China towards intermediates. To counter the China challenge, we need not just a ‘whole-of-government’ approach but a unified ‘whole-of-country’ approach.
Qualitative Aspects of Dealing with China
Mr Rajaram Muthukrishnan, Director, Voice Snap Services Pvt Ltd., spoke about the economic challenges India currently faces in dealing with China. He dealt with three broad areas:

  • A qualitative look into the China-India bilateral trade trend.
  • The strategic intent in the Chinese investment strategies in India and its neighbourhood.
  • The economic options available to India.

Though the Indo-China bilateral trade has steadily increased over the past five to six years, there has been a massive trade deficit in favour of China.
“There is scope for both India and China to focus on areas of trade that will be really beneficial to both the countries,” he said. For instance, China imports agricultural products heavily. India has vast export potential in this category. However, India has been unable to crack the Chinese market.
According to Mr Rajaram, China is concentrating on the east and south parts of India where innovation is happening and the startup ecosystem is thriving. While India does not have big money to back our unicorns, China rushes to fund them, he observed and gave the examples of Paytm, Zomato and Swiggy where the Chinese have investments.
He suggested that India must focus on manufacturing, modernising agriculture using AI, improving the startup ecosystem and investing massively in infrastructure. He opined that these will reduce the economic gap between India and China. He also welcomed Prime Minister Modi’s announcement in the Independence Day speech that the government will invest about 15Bn USD in infrastructure projects.
Mr Pankaj Madan, Deputy-Head, India Office & Head-Programmes, KAS, in his concluding remarks, summed up the views shared by all the panellists.
He was of the opinion that the Afghan crisis will have a major impact on India. He said that the world has at last woken up to China’s designs of placing its people in key positions in multilateral platforms to subvert the systems and institutions to its advantage.
He quoted Chinese philosopher Hu Shih who said that India conquered China culturally for twenty centuries without sending a soldier across the border. Mr Pankaj appealed that India must follow the ‘whole-of-country’ approach as advocated in the panel discussions, and leverage its culture to take on the China challenge and spread its influence.

Q&A

How should India react to China’s grand strategy?
Gautam Bambawale: Analysts of China suggest that India should be doing what China is doing. I don’t agree with this view because India is a very different country with a different polity, different economy and different society. The key to our success is to make it easy to do business in India. To counter China’s grand strategy, we need to look inwards and get our GDP moving at 8 to 10% per annum over an extended period of time.
How has India fared in chairing the UN Security Council during its turn on rotation basis?
Gautam Bambawale: I was extremely impressed by the UN Security Council meeting chaired by India in August 2021 on the issue of maritime security. India has done extremely well and if it utilises the opportunities in future also when we will be chairing the UN Security Council, we can stamp our place amongst the comity of nations.
Sri Lanka has given access to China to develop its port. What makes China a great negotiator? Are we losing the plot?
Gautam Bambawale: A number of countries have pointed to Sri Lanka about the pitfalls of the deal with China but we can only take the horse to the water. We cannot force it to drink. If Sri Lanka wants to take more debts from China, there is very little others can do about it. India is working closely with Japan in doing projects in Sri Lanka and other third world countries. In a similar manner, we should also work with Germany and other countries across the world.
How does the leadership of the EU counter the challenges posed by China to western nations?
Peter Rimmele: The EU tries to combine their strength and come out with a common view of things but the foreign policy is decided by each nation and it is not outsourced to the EU. It is difficult to arrive at a common point of view among member states. Of course, all of them, to a more or lesser degree, will fear the influence of China, especially those who are part of China’s OBOR initiative. The EU considers China as a very important trading partner and at the same time, a systemic rival too.
Will the Afghan developments be exploited by China? What should India do to counter this?
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan: We need to wait and watch as to how the situation develops. It is still evolving and we do not know who will come to power. China will prefer a neutral, if not a favourable, government. They also have a proxy in Pakistan through which it can influence the Taliban. A year and half-ago, China asked Afghanistan to join the China-Pakistan economic corridor. Chinese are wise people and they may not put their boots on the ground.
India adopted a two-pronged approach–to develop the infrastructure by participating in projects and to develop the capability and capacity of the Afghan forces and the nation. Though there is a temporary setback, I don’t think that the Indians have lost the goodwill of the Afghans.
How significant is PM Modi’s Presidential address at the UN Security Council meeting on maritime security and what message has this conveyed to China?
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan: We have been insisting on the rule of law, freedom of navigation and freedom of over-flight through the sea. To that extent, the Prime Minister’s message has gone across very well. QUAD countries also can help in exerting pressure on China.
Should we engage with China at all, given their games of deceits?
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan: We cannot wish away our neighbours. They are there because of geography. In the Asian region, both India and China are vying for strategic space. We can engage with our neighbours provided the prerequisite of peace along LAC exists.
In a climate of distrust, how can we bring China back to the table and restore diplomatic relations?
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan: We have to go back to 1986 when a military standoff took place between India and China in the Sumdorong Chu valley. It took us seven years to resolve that issue and get back to normalcy. We need to persevere in what we want to do. We have given a clear message that on territorial sovereignty and integrity, there will not be any compromise.
Is democracy a weakness for India since China has shown what it can achieve with autocracy?
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan: This discourse has gained currency in recent years as China is spreading the message that they can handle things better (for example, Covid management) with the system they have. On the other hand, countries like the US and UK have progressed very well with democracy. So this is a dichotomy. Democracy is not at all a weakness as citizens enjoy freedom.
Has India failed to capitalise economically on the anti-China backlash?
Santhosh Pai: China has built its economy over a period of 30 years. Also, it follows a multitude of strategies for different countries to attract FDI. India has to have its own strategy and we cannot replicate China’s. We are still in the early stages of this journey and I see a lot of positives.
Between Indian and Chinese companies, which are more compliant?
Santhosh Pai: Compliance is a function of enforcement. It depends on the nations rather than the companies. Indian enforcement is extremely lax. In China, enforcement comes with a huge force and, therefore, compliance becomes a ‘must.’
Will Germany be a major player in global security?
Peter Rimmele: Germany participates in international missions as this is allowed under the constitution. But on its own, it will not put its boots on the ground. Frankly, they do not have the capacity to do so. After World War II, investment in the defence forces was not a priority for Germany. However, Germany will exert its influence by staying relevant in various international fora. Germany sent a ship to the Indo-Pacific to send a message that it will do something to defend a global, rules-based order.
What stops India from manufacturing cheaper products to take on China?
Rajaram Muthukrishnan: China’s approach towards manufacturing is to work on skill, scale and speed. We do not have the ability to build to scale in view of our systemic problems. We can get economies of scale which leads to cheaper costs.
China also adopts a predatory pricing policy to clean up competition and to dominate later. The speed at which China launches its products in the market is also very high. Our judicial, environmental and other ecosystems hold us back, unlike China. We need to have more skilled manpower, produce at scale and operate with speed. If we do that, we can replace our Chinese imports gradually. We are already working in this direction and over the next 5 years, we may replace many Chinese imports.
What will happen to the future of Hong Kong and how will the rest of the world be affected by the developments there? Has the one nation, two systems concept failed there?
Rajaram Muthukrishnan: Politically, the concept of one country, two systems has ended in Hong Kong. Its political future is under the control of China. Hong Kong’s economic value for China is increasing and it will continue to be so. There is a systemic change in its economic power houses. Chinese MNCs have replaced multinational and European companies. China will route some of their investments through Hong Kong’s open borders. Over a 30 year period, the economic value addition of Hong Kong to China and to the world will come down. But at the moment, Hong Kong will continue to be relevant.

Mr Peter Rimmele, Resident Representative to India, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Ambassador Gautham Bambawale, Former Indian Ambassador to China

Lt Gen SL Narasimhan, PVSM, AVSM, VSM, Member of the National Security Advisory Board, India

Mr Santhosh Pai, Partner, Link Legal

Mr Rajaram Muthukrishnan, Director, Voice Snap Services Pvt. Ltd

Commodore R Seshadri Vasan, Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies

Mr Pankaj Madan, Deputy Head – India Office & Head-Programmes, KAS

The Future of Drones in India: Threats, Operations & National Capabilities

Read Time:12 Minute

According to Mr Peter Rimmele, any nation that shuts its eyes to this technology would undoubtedly find itself unable to compete militarily with nations that are heavily invested in this technology. He related it to the recently concluded war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the first in modern warfare to be won almost entirely by the strength of drones. Armenia, which fought with conventional systems, was resoundingly defeated by Azerbaijan, which relied to a great extent on drones.
Need for Agreements
“The low cost and easy accessibility of drones pose a disquieting danger, as they could fall into the wrong hands of non-state actors such as terrorist groups,” Mr Peter Rimmele cautioned and stressed the need for development of defence technologies for the safety, security and protection of the civil population and the nations. He also advocated international, multilateral agreements on the availability of drone parts, and regulations concerning their sale to mitigate such dangers.
He pointed out that both India’s eastern and western neighbours have access to drones; China has even reached US standards with its CH4 and CH5 drones. Turkey and Pakistan are moving towards closer alliance. Given such circumstances India’s investment in such technologies appears mandatory.
He added that as the resident representative of the KAS-India office, a foundation that works tirelessly for peace, prosperity and security throughout the world, it is essential to remain realistic about the dangers that both countries could pose to the entire Indo-Pacific region at large, and to avoid underestimating them.
Air Marshal M Matheswaran (Retd) AVSM VM PhD, Chairman & President, The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai in his opening remarks spoke about a study done by US Air Force in 1995 and released in 1996 titled, ‘Air Force 2025.’
This study predicted that other nations could catch up with the military strength of the US with air power. The study also covered in detail the future threats from air and about drones. It highlighted the need for a Global Information System and integration of all drones through a dedicated network and generation of 24 x 7 information flow. The predictions of the US Air Force have indeed come true.
Evolution of Air Power
Air Marshal S Varthaman (Retd) PVSM AVSM VM VSM, Distinguished Fellow of TPF and former AOC-in-C of Eastern Air Command, traced the history of the usage of air power ever since the Wright brothers took to the sky in 1903 and spoke of its deployment from the World War I to the Gulf War, its use by terrorists like the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) against the Sri Lankan army and Al Qaeda’s crashing of planes into the twin towers of World Trade Centre and other targets in the 9/11 attack.
He did not agree with the contention that when the drone attack happened in Jammu, India was caught napping. He said that India is as prepared as any evil thinker can think of and that we have offensive capabilities. He opined that offence is the best form of defence. He led the conversation with the panellists and moderated the discussions, chipping in with his expert views and comments.
Drones and Non-State Actors
Air Marshal B Suresh (Retd) PVSM AVSM VM, Former AOC-in-C of Western Air Command, spoke about India’s operational preparedness and the global aspects. He pointed out that non-state actors have been the biggest beneficiaries of drone technology. Different kinds of payloads can be delivered even in micro UAVs, he said and added that an impact fuse had been used in the Jammu drone attack. He listed that drones are used by three categories of people:

  • State actors
  • Non-state actors with the implicit backing of states
  • Non-state actors acting independently.

According to him, the second group is the most dangerous as they get access to technology. Listing out various global drone attacks, he pointed out that in most of the attacks, the targets were static. Mobile, underground and camouflaged targets are different and difficult to attack.
He listed out weather, altitude and terrain as the challenges in deployment of drones. He discussed the different technologies now used in drones. Swarm Technology, though not widely used, is seriously considered by our defence team, he said and added that for offensive use, drones must have penetration, range and survival capabilities.
There have been cases of drones used for recreation causing havoc. The regulatory framework for commercial and recreational drones during peacetime is not adequate. It needs to be updated and put in place, he remarked and said that all drones must be registered and geo-fencing made mandatory.

Manned–Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) will play a big role in the fighter pilot environment in the future and India must get on board MUM-T so that it is not left behind. ~ Group Captain M J Augustine Vinod (Retd)

Detection of Drones
Group Captain M J Augustine Vinod (Retd), Director, AutoMicrOUS, explained about a successful demo project carried out by his firm for the Indian Air Force, by launching a swarm of 11 drones with autonomous mode using AI and Machine Learning, at Pokhran range, at 50 degree C, as part of Meher Baba Swarm Drone competition. Data link forms the backbone of swarm drones, he explained and said that there is a wide scope of playing with the images and interpreting the data generated by a drone.
He dealt with the challenges of detection of drones which is essential to counter security threats and listed three ways in which drones can be detected–using drone radar, intercepting data link between drones (electronic triangulation) and using acoustics. He reckoned that acoustics showed greater promise than the other two.
He said that a defensive system against drones is a very costly affair. He batted for retaliating any drone attack with a much powerful drone attack. He also suggested that India must have a drone command and it must fit with the overall theatre command.
He also said that Manned–Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) will play a big role in the fighter pilot environment in the future and that India must get on board MUM-T so that it is not left behind. There are lots of opportunities for deployment of drones in civilian use and especially in the construction industry, he said and referred to a Goldman Sachs report on the same subject.
Need for Robust Design
Prof P M Soundar Rajan, NIAS, Bangalore and Former Director, DARE, DRDO, spoke about his work on drones during his stint at the DRDO and the importance of electromagnetic shielding. He brought out the limitations in the current generation of drones and stressed the need for a robust design. He covered the communication, navigation and surveillance aspects of drones.
He stated that communication in drones is data linked and very easily jammable. Having a robust communication system is expensive and civil drones may not be able to afford that cost, he said. He added that for the current drones, the internet will be the core of operation.
He pointed out that the GPS system used to control navigation of drones is highly vulnerable. According to him, vision-based navigation is a promising development. He recommended certification of dual use drones.

…the 2014 notification banning civilian drones was a dampener in developing national capabilities in drones and set us back by at least five years. ~ Mr Sai Pattabiraman

Focus on Manpower
Wing Commander David Devasahayam (Retd), Operations Director, Cyient Solutions & Systems, Hyderabad, highlighted the issue of manpower required to operate drones and their knowledge and skill sets. “They must be familiar with the technology, knowledge of operating systems, and understanding of the air situation both from a military and civil perspective. This is an area that merits consideration,” he said.
According to him, miniaturisation and improvement in the payload quality need to be looked at. Meteorology is another focus area especially when we operate in high terrain areas. He pointed out that the knowledge base in terms of meteorology for an operator should be of a very high order. Commenting on the drone regulation, he remarked that unless we make things friendly for people to fly drones, we will not be able to make much progress. “Drone regulations must be made by the operators and with the help of air force personnel, drawing on their experience,” he said and added that the drone regulation which the present civil aviation minister has announced is a welcome step.
National Capability
Mr Sai Pattabiraman MD, Zuppa Geo Navigation, Chennai, talked about the national capability in drone technology and the steps to be taken to achieve dominance in this domain.
According to him, the 2014 notification banning civilian drones was a dampener in developing national capabilities in drones and set us back by at least five years. This led to proliferation of illegal smuggling of Chinese drones, he lamented. Though the regulation was removed in August 2018, there are still grey areas, he said.
He explained how the automobile sector can be used to benchmark drone industry and brought out the similarities between the two in cost, ownership and distribution. He also noted that miniature cameras and sensors for drones are developed based on their application in mobile phones. On certification of drones, he opined that military application drones need certification but it is not advisable to make it mandatory for civilian drones. It will increase the cost of drones and customers will not be ready to pay for it, which in turn, will lead to development of a clandestine market.
Threats and Opportunities
Mr Abhishek Jain, Vice President – Strategic Partnerships, Zeusnumerix, Pune, said that the fuselage of the drone is not that important. It can be easily made even from 3D printing but it is the electronics and the source code of the autopilot that are critical to a drone.
He also explained why drones are an excellent option for enemies of India. He listed out design flaws, ad hoc and temporary arrangements and lack of solid research, enemy capabilities, laziness, obsolescence and lack of vision as India’s key threats. He recommended that sufficient time frame must be given for designing and making drones. Abhishek stressed that India needs to focus on indigenous autopilots, miniaturised motors, battery development and its optimisation and propeller manufacturing. According to him, swarming drones should not be made mandatory everywhere and Kamikaze loitering munitions should be developed before armed drones.
He listed out India’s enthusiastic manpower and the availability of schemes to fund the manpower as positive aspects. “We need a national UAV road map and we need to fund it. We cannot miss this bus,” he appealed.

Q&A

We discussed small and miniature drones. What about the need for making large drones like the Searcher and Heron which can loiter over an area for 3 to 4 days with an eye that does not blink?
Prof P M Soundar Rajan: There are two approaches to making drones: the aircraft angle and the other one, the RC (Radio Controlled) toy approach. For large drones, DRDO has been going with the aircraft approach. DRDO may not have been highly successful here, but they have vast expertise. We can even convert unreliable aircrafts into drones using autopilot, for one way missions.
India can also make large drones like the Searcher with the support of private enterprises. We have data link and flight control technologies. DRDO lost out to Searchers only because of the sensors. The users found the sensors in Searcher drones more useful than those in the DRDO-developed drones. So we are now focussing on developing smart sensors in India.
Certification of drones has been a main issue as it involves cost. We are now familiar with our requirements and this too can be addressed.
Abhishek Jain: We need to invest in IC engines to power large drones. These engines can also be used in many areas, other than drones.
Air Marshal B Suresh: Even during earlier times, we had large benign drones. But the Air Force lost such drones in hostile environments. So for large drones, I advocate one-way drones. We have offensive capabilities but we need to develop capability to pinpoint the author of an attack on us.
Can you elaborate about the national UAV roadmap and funding?
Abhishek Jain: Motor development has been a problem area. Most of the smaller drones need sophisticated and reliable motors. For defence systems, we require high performance motors. I believe that the brain of a drone has to be indigenously developed.
Sai Pattabiraman: We have very good indigenously developed auto-pilots with our own patented technology. We have used them for UGVs, boats and tractors. I agree that we need to develop motors and batteries for drones in India. There are incentives for making in India, electronics and related products. Electronics supply chain has today shifted from system level to component level. In the future, it will shift from component to raw material level. This is a reason why we are able to get today sensors, processors and chips at a fairly low cost. This will evolve as the industry evolves. But what is important is that there has to be sufficient industry demand to absorb the supply chain. If we build the national capability and the industry, then rest of the things will fall in place.
Air Marshal Matheswaran: China has 120 satellites dedicated to ISR alone (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance). Going into the brain of the drone, the chip is the most important. The battle between US and China is on the technology front. China heavily depends on other nations for its semiconducting chips. They have plans to make at least 50% of these in China between 2030 and 2035. India is completely dependent on imported chips and we need to focus on the chips.
Air Marshal Varthaman: Manufacturing chips requires huge investment and rare earth minerals.
Sai Pattabiraman: We need investors. Unfortunately, most Private Equity investors are ready to fund APP based developments that will give quick returns, say less than six months. They shy away from investments in the manufacturing sector. We developed autopilot in 2015 and got our funding from TIFAC from the Department of Science and Technology. Getting funds for expansion became impossible. We also need large volumes to attract funding.
Air Marshal B Suresh: As a user of drone components, I have an observation. The product support ecosystem in India has been a big issue. It needs to be greatly improved.

Mr Peter Rimmele, Resident Representative to India, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Air Marshal M Matheswaran AVSM VM PhD (V), Chairman & President, The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai

Air Marshal S Varthaman PVSM AVSM VM VSM (V), Distinguished Fellow of TPF and former AOC-in-C of Eastern Air Command

Air Marshal B Suresh PVSM AVSM VM (V), Former AOC-in-C of Western Air Command

Gp Capt M J Augustine Vinod (V), Director, Automicro UAS

Prof P M Soundar Rajan, NIAS, Bangalore. Former Director, DARE, DRDO

Mr Abhishek Jain, Vice President – Strategic Partnerships, Zeusnumerix, Pune

Mr Sai Pattabiraman, MD, Zuppa Geo Navigation, Chennai

Wg Cdr David Devasahayam (V), Operations Director, Cyient Solutions & Systems, Hyderabad

Unleashing Creativity and Innovation in Next Gen Leaders

Read Time:9 Minute

As the world dramatically reshapes itself post-Covid, innovation has come to the fore; disruption becomes the new normal. Speaking of innovation, there has been very little attention paid to the role of students/youngsters. The 14-year-old Aditya Pachpande, a child prodigy and CEO, Nextgen Innov8, encapsulates the new breed of youngsters who believe in innovation being the solution to India’s challenges.
Joining him in the discussion organised by MMA on the theme “Unleashing Creativity and Innovation in Next Gen Leaders” are two stalwarts who have etched their own strong footprints of success in the realm of leadership, entrepreneurship and marketing, and his dad, Dr Sandeep Pachpande—an educationist leading ASM Group of Institutes.
G Ramachandran (GR): Aditya, Do you think that your innovativeness and uniqueness happened because of parental control or did you have it in you?
Aditya: I started my creativity journey by reading Tom Kelly’s book, “Creative Confidence.” When I researched about the concept of innovation, I realised that it was in me. I had the internal drive to solve a particular problem. In school, I was teased as ‘lecture man’ just because I used to go beyond the syllabus of the class.
When I told my teachers about design thinking and innovation, my teachers would discourage me saying that it was not important as it would not come in the exams. I feel every child has the capacity to solve complex problems. My parents supported me and encouraged my passion. I got support from others like you too.
Were your marks good in exams?
Honestly, my marks were not good. Topping the exam was never my objective. I gave importance to my passion and I think that exams are not everything.
How should school children approach innovation?
Don’t be afraid to be different from others. Age is just a number. It is no barrier to success or innovation. Children should definitely have focus on the exam but more focus on where their heart leads them.

Scarcity is the mother of innovation. Most innovations came during crisis or recession.

Apurva: Is innovation overrated and execution part played down?
Execution is a part of innovation. When you are improving a certain product to solve someone else’s problem, it is innovation. If the solution is not executed, there is no use in that. So innovation and execution go hand in hand.
What was your first innovation?
I made some thing out of Lego. My father had bought a voice box. I put it in Lego and made it to speak.
Many people complain of lack of resources to be innovative. Should all resources have to be in place for innovation to happen?
Scarcity is the mother of innovation. Most innovations came during crisis or recession. If you take the case of Iron Man movie, though it is fiction, the hero is kidnapped by enemies and because he wants to get rid of them, he creates a space suit and escapes. He does not have all the resources for the suit. Innovation is like ‘jugaad.’ It is doing more with less.
You studied in Harvard. How was that experience?
When I was 11, I wanted to start my company to pursue my passion. I applied to the Harvard Summer Business Academy. They said my application was brilliant but due to my age, they could not admit me. I was heartbroken. Afterwards, I convinced them to have a Skype interview and I got in.
I met different kinds of people there. The most innovative people were the professors who taught in a very different manner than a traditional teacher would teach. They used many case studies and examples and the sessions were very interactive. It was an absolutely amazing experience and I made a lot of friends.
Sandeep: Aditya, can you tell us about the innovation that you made during the pandemic?
During the pandemic, I realised that people had a challenge in sterlising vegetables, groceries, parcels, and other such necessary items brought from outside to the home. I was inspired by Mahatma Gandhi, who said, ‘Be the change that you wish to see in the world’ and wanted to provide something for frontline warriors.
I began thinking about how one could sterilise these items. Exposure to sunlight, or washing them with soap/baking soda/potassium permanganate, or using sanitisers are all options but each one has its drawback. This is when I got the idea of creating the Suraksha Box, which works on the principle of using UVC light to sterilise.

The Covid crisis has made all educational institutes adopt to technology. With technology, we can give personalised learning and solutions to students.

The box has a mesh on which the items are placed and subjected to UVC light in a controlled environment. This was launched on October 2, 2020, Gandhiji’s 152nd birth anniversary, with a Government of India (MC&I) patent published. It has also been approved and certified by the CSIR-CMERI of the Government of India.
The box can protect against all kinds of viruses, bacteria and fungi. The goal is provide 15,000+ Suraksha boxes to the underprivileged, needy and frontline workers. There are two versions of it, one being a do-it-yourself (DIY) version which costs a lot lower. It can be assembled in under 30 minutes. It is fully made in India.
Apurva: Sandeep, what were the challenges you had in being a father of a child prodigy?
It is absolutely a proud moment for us being parents of a child prodigy. Initially when we saw the spark in him that he was different, we were a little bit worried. His mother felt that when he started his company, he should not lose his childhood. Soon we realised he was someone who could balance everything together. We provided him all the support, took him where ever he wanted us to, for his learning. We were okay with his marks. He scored well in the subjects that mattered to him. We decided not to pressurise him in his studies and marks and allowed him to follow his passion.
Aditya: Now let me ask a few questions to the panellists. What is the biggest mistakes that most entrepreneurs make?
GR: They don’t have a game plan and a ‘go-to-market’ strategy. When they have some ideas, they think they have arrived. Unless consumers accept your product, you cannot be a success story.
Aditya: How can innovation be incorporated in the classroom?
Sandeep: It is a challenge since the traditional system is marks and exams based. We focus more on the memory of the student. The Covid crisis has made all educational institutes adopt to technology. With technology, we can give personalised learning and solutions to students. In ASM Group, we provide blended mode and asynchronous teaching. We now use case studies method and this should be adopted not only in colleges but in all schools. Problem solving, innovation, design thinking can also be made part of the curriculum. Jobs of the future require these.
Aditya: As one of the top angel investors in the country, what should entrepreneurs do to be innovative?
Apurva: Innovative companies outperform other companies by over 60%. One of the traits I find in such companies is extreme customer centricity. There are two ways to be innovative. Do something which nobody has done before. Or do things in a way which nobody has done before. The second one should not be underestimated. Innovative entrepreneurs spend the best part with customers and consumers in trying to solve their needs.

We also need more social entrepreneurs. We used crowd-funding to promote our DIY Suraksha kit.

Aditya: How can we change the fear of failure mindset in entrepreneurs?
GR: Fear of failure is the fear of the unknown. Entrepreneurs in India start off with the thought, “I want to be an entrepreneur.” Planning is very important. They need to know how much money is needed. Some start a company with their little savings, more as a hobby than a serious profession.
They need to have coaches and mentors to help them ride over a crisis. When they are not good in taking the product to the market, they lose focus and deviate. The entrepreneur cannot be a one-man army. Preferably, he must have a co-founder with whom he can have different sets of priorities established. Unicorns are not having just one founder. They are a team. They must think through carefully and roll out priorities and plans. Above all, customer recognition is the need of the hour. If they take care of all these, the fear of failure mindset can be conquered.
Aditya: How can creativity be leveraged and taught better to students?
Sandeep: Kids are more innovative, and innovation is there in all of us. The society and the education system block out much of our creativity and makes us think inside the box. If kids are given space to think about their problems and innovative solutions by their community or parents, they can come up with radically innovative ideas. They must get the right mentors so that we can have many more Adityas.
Aditya: Do we have enough of young entrepreneurs in India? What is holding them up?
Apurva: We are quite behind in this scenario. India is a land of opportunities and has a lot to offer the world. QR code based payment model started in India and went global. We are not seeing many young entrepreneurs. As parents, we need to encourage our children and friends to be entrepreneurs.
Aditya: We also need more social entrepreneurs. We used crowd-funding to promote our DIY Suraksha kit. We are creating a world record to assemble on 8th August 2021 the maximum number of UVC kits in a single day. It can be used for self-use or donated to the needy, underprivileged or front line workers. I would appeal all to support and promote this social cause.
I would like to know why social entrepreneurship is not taking off amongst youngsters.
GR: We think that getting into social entrepreneurship is not a great career. Today people think cricket is a career because there is money involved but that social causes cannot provide career. We need to remove this mindset. We need to catch people young. You don’t need to be innovative and entrepreneurial at the same time but if you have both, then you have the DNA in you to make it big. We don’t have the ecosystem for encouraging youngsters in social work. If our kids collect money for a cause, we tell them, “Don’t waste your time. When will you study?”
When young children wanted to clean Juhu beach, their parents told them, “Why do you waste your time? It will again get spoiled.” They posted it in social media about the challenges they faced. So elders need big time education not to dissuade youngsters in reaching out through social causes.
Apurva: I suggest that children must be given internship in big corporates so that they can understand how the corporates work.
Aditya: What is your take on the new Education Policy?
Sandeep: The new national educational policy is good as there are many positive features and flexibility for students with an integrated approach. But I feel that we cannot have a one-size-fits-all model for such a diverse country as India. This aspect needs to be thought of.

Mr G Ramachandran, Chairman, Advisory board, Innoserv Group, ORAI Robotics, Director – Keiretsu Forum, Co-Founder & Mentor, Z-bat

Mr Apurva Chamaria, SVP & Chief of Staff to CEO & MD, Tech Mahindra and Author

Dr Sandeep Pachpande, Chairman, ASM Group of Institutes

Mr Aaditya Pachpande, CEO, Nextgen Innov8

India’s Domestic Tourism: Challenges & Opportunities in Changing World Order

Read Time:17 Minute

In the last two years, there has been a major crisis from Covid-19, which has been crippling many industries; the hospitality and the tourism industries being the worst affected. The World Bank estimates a loss of 220 million jobs due to the pandemic. Where do we go from here?
In the future, we’ll see more pandemics, not less. Every time there is a pandemic, if we are going to shut down, then it is not going to be good for the tourism industry. How can we ride the wave rather than drown in the sea of pandemics? This is the biggest question that has come before us.
As a large segment of workforce has now started working from home, the people who are travelling for business meetings have shifted to online meetings; there will be a dip in the number of people travelling for business. More people will now be using online mechanisms and media for conducting businesses. However, I can see that many people who are working from home are looking for a break from the routine and for an escape. This is a large segment of people who will be driving tourism in the next few years. This segment is not looking for a destination visit but an experience very different from what they currently undergo. So my understanding and prediction is that there will be a lot of tourism but it will not be the kind that was there before the pandemic. We need to put in place three strategies to ensure that tourism picks up:
Ensuring traveller confidence
Identifying new drivers of demand
Promoting the GRID concept
Tourism contributes more than 15% of GDP to the country. Tamil Nadu, being the number one destination for both domestic and international tourists, would see a similar contribution if not more in the state GDP. Therefore, it becomes very essential to revive tourism in the post-pandemic era.
Traveller Confidence
The first thing that the tourist will look forward to is some kind of confidence. It is up to the industry to improve the traveller confidence. The government of Tamil Nadu has put together a small team which is currently working on drawing up safety protocols for health and sanitation at various levels covering, at one level, an open destination, at another level a hotel where the tourists stay and at the third level, an experiential destination where they will go and experience a particular ride or an event.
The safety and hygiene protocols to be followed at all these levels are under the consideration of the government. Shortly, we will come out with these protocols which will be widely disseminated amongst all stakeholders. It then becomes the responsibility of every one of them to ensure that the safety protocols are followed. Travellers will start feeling confident and safe and more and more tourists will come into our state.
Tracking Drivers of Demand
We need to understand the market trend and drivers of demand. The target of the post-pandemic travellers is a little different. They look for a safe destination and also an experiential kind of a thing when they go for tourism. In Tamil Nadu, we are working on an integrated master plan for tourism, where we have segmented the various kinds of tourists into ten broad segments. The government is working out a tourism promotion policy to incentivise these various segments and position Tamil Nadu as a destination.
GRID Concept
Whatever we do, it needs to be GRID, which is a World Bank concept. GRID refers to Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development. Only sustainable tourism will thrive in a post-pandemic era. The integrated master plan will ensure that the number of people who come to the state will spend more time. Earlier, if they were spending two to three days per capita, now we want them to stay at least three to five days, so there is more employment, economic growth and more importantly, there is GSDP growth in the state. Through our policy, we will encourage high value tourists with low ecological impact.
These are the TEN segments that we have come up with for promoting in Tamil Nadu:
Pilgrimage and Heritage: Tamil Nadu remains a great pilgrimage and heritage destination. There are specific nodal points or destinations which constantly keep attracting a large number of tourists. The government is in the process of understanding the requirements of the pilgrims and providing the necessary infrastructure including destination development in those particular locations.
Festivals and Fairs: We are very vibrant in terms of festivals and fairs—be it the Azhagar festival in Madurai, the Surasamharam in Tiruchendur, Jallikattu in Alanganallur, Madurai and other places or the Santhana Koodu in Nagore Dharga. They attract phenomenally huge numbers. The state government would like to focus on such events to ensure that pilgrims have a very decent and nice experience, the arrival and departure are seamless and a lot of accommodation is available—both temporary and permanent to take care of their requirements.
Heritage Buildings: Tamil Nadu has many rich heritage buildings. The Madurai Naicker Mahal is a great example of architecture which is being restored. There will shortly be a new laser 3D mapping show which will showcase the rich heritage of the Mahal and the story of the Thirumalai Naickers. Similarly, there are heritage hotels like the Fernhills Royal Palace in Ooty and the Chidambara Vilas Palace in Chettinad. There will be a package of incentives that the government will offer to promote more such heritage properties, preserve them for posterity and show people a glimpse into what heritage is and how it needs to be maintained.
Spiritual and Wellness Tourism: This is another important segment. A large number of hubs like the Auroville Matrimandir, the ISHA Centre in Coimbatore and many other places in Coimbatore District are coming up with yoga, ayurveda and naturopathy. A large segment of people go to these centres, partly for rejuvenation and partly for treatment. The neighbouring state of Kerala has made a big business out of it. We also would like to see it happens in Tamil Nadu. We are working closely with various nature care providers.
Eco-Tourism: Tamil Nadu has a very rich biodiversity in terms of flora and fauna, both in the Western Ghats and Eastern Ghats. All of them are great destinations for trekking trails, nature walks, bird watching, nature camps and other nature related activities. These activities require very little investment but proper training. They also have low ecological impact and offer high return and we would actively encourage them in the state.
Tea and Rubber Estate Plantation: This niche kind of tourism is slowly taking root in the state. Many buildings in tea and rubber estates are now being renovated and restored and people are invited to stay in old homes and experience life in a tea or a rubber plantation. One such resort in Kanyakumari, which is part of a rubber plantation, has been doing very well. It is on the banks of the Chittar dam and attracts high-value tourists from across the world. We are working closely with the plantation industry to ensure this segment happens.
Adventure Tourism: Adventure is adrenaline for youngsters who look for paragliding parasailing, paraclimbing, zipline, rope walking, bungee jumping, etc. We would like to promote these in a safe environment.
Water Sports: We have one of the longest coastlines in the country. The Chennai-Mahabalipuram stretch has a large number of villas. This coastal stretch is also home to a lot of turf schools that have recently come up. We will promote water sports including wind surfing, scuba diving, kayaking, fishing and surfing in a big way. A small task force is working on this to lay out the roadmap for the development of these sports in the state.
Amusement Parks: Tamil Nadu has five large amusement parks and we are looking at inviting international players. The government has plans to declare tourism as an industry in the state and we want to provide them all kinds of facilities which other industries would get in the state.
Arts & Culture: Another very important attraction is arts and culture as symbolized through various festivals like the Margazhi music festival and the Mahabalipuram Indian Dance festival. The government of Tamil Nadu is also planning to have a folk arts festival every year, which will then become an anchor around which people can spend time in various places, trying to understand and enjoy the classic and folk arts of the place. This will give a rich experience and a feast for the eyes.
MICE Tourism
Of course, our food is very varied. It has multiple cuisines and it is quite an addition and attraction to a person who visits Tamil Nadu. So that will also be promoted. All these segments make a very good package for MICE tourism (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions) and for which, we will work closely with people in the private sector to make it happen.
These segments will be the major drivers of tourism in future for Tamil Nadu. The government is actively working with private partners and multiple stakeholders.
We have identified projects that the government has to do, that the private sector could do, and also PPP projects. All these will find place in the new tourism promotion policy now in the making and will be ready shortly. We expect that the revival of tourism will get a great fillip in Tamil Nadu. All stakeholders will be partners in this endeavour.

Q&A

M.K. Ajit Kumar, Spokesperson, South India MICE Association:
When would the state Tourism Department think of opening up the sector for MICE, in terms of relaxing the restrictions on numbers currently in place for conventions or conferences in Tamil Nadu?
Currently, the government is monitoring a couple of very important parameters with reference to the Covid pandemic. Every week, review is held at the highest level in the government on what needs to be relaxed and what needs to be controlled. It will be a calibrated and proper response. At the moment, I am unable to tell a specific date because it will depend on how the pandemic behaves and the various parameters that we need to keep in mind before we open for MICE tourism.
Asoka Pugal, President Emeritus, Tourist Guides Federation of India:
The rubber estate and tea plantation guesting is a niche tourism segment. My request is that in most of the advisory bodies of Tamil Nadu tourism, there is no mention or inclusion of guides who spend their time with the tourists. I would request you to include guides as a part of the advisory panels where we can give a lot of input.
We acknowledge that if the tourism destination is a diamond, a guide is like a cutter and polisher who brings brilliance to the stone. A good guide can make or mar a trip. We look forward to curated visits; and guides will play a very important role. We will definitely get your ideas on the subject.
Gp Captain Vijayakumar:
What is your advice to the students of MBA (Tourism)?
In TTDC, we have some people who have finished their MBA in tourism and are working for us. Their quality of input and the kind of insight they have in the subject is phenomenal. It is really a big value addition not only to TTDC but to the entire sector. The skill sets and knowledge that MBA students of tourism have are much needed in the sector. In fact, we are in a short supply. I am sure that in days to come, if you are good at your subject and have a passion for tourism, there is no stopping you. It will be a great career.

We look forward to curated visits; and guides will play a very important role.

M.K. Ajit Kumar
Spokesperson, South India MICE Association
Tourism in India had grown from 10.56 million tourist arrivals in 2018 to 10.93 million arrivals in 1990. Before the pandemic, foreign tourist arrivals, known as FTAs, grew at an annual average of 8.7% during 2014, 2015 to 2018 and 2019. It slowed down to 3.2% post 2019.
India ranked 34 out of 140 countries in the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index 2019 made by the World Economic Forum.
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) calculated that tourism in India generated roughly 16.91 lakh crores or USD 240 Bn or approximately 9.2% of India’s GDP in 2018 and supported India for 42.673 million jobs i.e. 8% of its total employment. In 2019, tourism contributed to 9.3% of India’s GDP. That was the feel-good story.
Even with all these growth figures, FTA to India was just below 1% of global FTA and tourism receipts were 1.88% of corresponding global figures. So, for India, irrespective of the pandemic, it is like starting from scratch.
In 2014, the United Nations General Assembly declared July 15th as the World Youth Skills Day. The youth have a role to play in domestic MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions) and they need to be equipped with the necessary skillsets to exploit the opportunities.
We had about 12,000 MICE meetings per annum in India but post-Covid, all four segments of MICE have been impacted. Corporates have stopped most of the travel for meetings. The second sub-segment of MICE – i.e. incentive travel abroad has mostly been deferred to late 2021. Most conferences have shifted to digital channels. The exhibition segment has suffered huge losses and we do not see a revival probably till end of 2021. However, the light at the end of the tunnel is MICE in domestic tourism.
Skillsets required in the youth for the four segments of MICE:
o Meetings: Fluent communication skills, proactive thinking, ability to be on one’s feet to assist in corporate meetings either on stage, backstage or in the hall itself, organising audio, video including backup arrangements, event management skills.
o Incentive Travel: Knowledge of history and historical sites, willingness to travel as an escort or part of the group; having an affable personality, exuding confidence to tackle any situation on the ground and thinking on the feet.
Conferences: Ability to provide assistance on arrival at the airport to meet and greet delegates, arranging / coordinating transport and hotel check-ins, understanding the protocols and etiquettes of the delegates and their company culture; Having affable, pleasing personality, thinking on the feet, quick grasp of situation and dealing with emergencies to help the delegates.
Exhibitions: Ability to man the stalls with or without the company representatives, having a knowledge base about the particular industry, guiding the visitors and grabbing a reference.
The pandemic has taken off about 70% of the jobs in the industry. But tourism industry is always known to be resilient. It will bounce back. There is a glorious future for the youth in the tourism industry.
Asoka Pugal
President Emeritus, Tourist Guides Federation of India
International tourism is called inbound tourism. People have been locked indoors for a long time and they are eagerly waiting for the lockdowns to be lifted; they are raring to go on holidays and breathe some fresh air. This could be termed ‘revenge tourism.’
Due to the scare created by the Covid-19 and taking into consideration the aspects of social distancing and hygiene at the destinations, initially people would like to visit nearby places and scale up gradually to places within the district, state, region and then within India.
Domestic tourists are those who move out of their place of domicile and spend more than 24 hours in another destination and do any activity other than what they normally do at home, like visiting family and friends outside, going on a pilgrimage, attending social functions, relaxing in a hill station or a beach resort, mountaineering, cycling, trekking, hiking, etc.
Historically, pilgrimage formed the basis of domestic tourism. Reading about the lives of our ancient seers, reformers and spiritual gurus, people are encouraged to travel across various holy places in India. It has always been a tradition for people from the South India to travel to the holy places of Ujjain, Haridwar, Kashi, Badrinath, Rishikesh; those from north travel down to the south to Madurai, Kanchipuram, Rameswaram or Kanyakumari. People from west go to east like from Rajasthan to Puri. People from the east like Orissa and Bengal go to Dwaraka. So this is how we have been connecting with people.
In the initial stages, Culture Tourism was always a part of a pilgrimage. People visit places of interest while going to the destination or returning. Hence the prime domestic tourism was pilgrimage.
The constant travel brought about a huge cultural exchange. Post-independence, we specified pilgrimage travel as domestic tourism. We followed the British and started travelling to hill resorts like Ooty, Kodaikanal, Shimla, Darjeeling, Kullu, Manali for every summer vacation, to escape the hot summers. These circuits are primarily for leisure and a clear shift from the pilgrim travel.
Leisure tourism has got expanded to include adventure tourism, wild life tourism and so on.
Revitalising domestic tourism has two parts: a) revitalizing travel trade and b) engaging youth in this process.
To revitalize travel, vaccination is very important. Unless 85% of the people in a particular area are vaccinated, people will be reluctant to visit that area. They will look for destination hygiene, social distancing, non-overcrowding and etiquettes and decorum to be maintained.
The youth can take up careers of hotelier, travel agent and most importantly tour guide, etc. They must have the drive to constantly innovate and provide better experience for the visiting tourists and constantly upskill themselves.
They must look into the portals of India Tourism or the Indian Institute of Tourism and Travel Management (IITTM) which offers several tourism oriented careers. They must update their knowledge of a destination by reading, attending webinars and discussions.
They must learn the art of tackling the tourists in a skilful manner so as to live up to India Tourism’s motto, “Welcome a visitor and send back a friend.”
The government is promoting ‘Dekho Apna Desh’ campaign, which is mainly to help the youth engage themselves in the tourism industry. There are several avenues open for the young entrepreneurs.
Shabin Sarvotham
Senior General Manager, Radisson Blu Temple Bay
The fiscal impact of the pandemic in Indian scenario is a loss of 1.40 lakh crores. This is the direct impact but indirectly, there are so many other people who are dependent on tourism, like people who have hotels and shops around the destination, artists and sculptors; all these people have been affected.

The government is promoting ‘Dekho Apna Desh’ campaign, which is mainly to help the youth engage themselves in the tourism industry.

The Spanish flu lasted a couple of years after which everything came back. In a cycle where something goes up, it comes down and again, it goes up. So we will see light at the end of the tunnel soon.
Many improvements are happening in terms of transportation, construction of roads, access and connectivity but there are also challenges.
The challenges of tourism industry in India are:
Lack of proper infrastructure
Access and connectivity issues
Getting human resources
Marketing and promotion
Taxation issues
Security and safety issues
Regulatory issues
There are many Opportunities of Tourism Industry in India and these will be shaped by the following:
Vaccination of all frontline tourism workers.
People will embrace travel more consciously
Short stays and weekend trips will be huge
The new protocols and procedures have to be adopted
Consumers will want more information about the end-to-end journey
People want to reconnect with nature and minimise their footprint
Travellers will seek out less crowded attractions and destinations and a nature-based experience
All State governments should promote information on Covid-19 free destinations
Governments all over the world are finding various ways as to how their own people and people who are coming from various other countries can be safe. New methods are being looked at. I am sure we can find out ways to be more successful. If we take one step at a time and move ahead, we can conquer even Mount Everest. There is enough space for people who think differently and out of the box because the guests too expect such things now. The youth can make a huge difference in all aspects of tourism. There are opportunities for those who are willing to make a mark on their own.

Dr B Chandramohan, IAS, Principal Secretary to Government – Tourism, Culture and Religious Endowments Dept & Chairman, TTDC

Dr M K Ajit Kumar Menon, President and CEO, Global Conference Management Group – GCMG

Mr Asoka Pugal, President Emeritus of the Tourist Guides’ Federation of India

Mr Shabin Sarvotham, Senior General Manager, Radisson Blu Temple Bay & President, South India MICE Association (SIMA)

Emerging Trends & Transformational Changes in Management Education

Read Time:8 Minute

L.S.Ganesh: Management institutions abroad normally do not admit students without work experience. But, in India, we admit freshers and even those who complete three-year undergraduate programmes. Management education has developed steadily over the last few decades in India, especially since the early 90s. The number and variety of UG and PG programmes have vastly increased along with the institutions offering them. As in engineering, management education also suffers from an institutional chasm that separates top programmes from the average and the mediocre.

I would like to pose three questions to our panellists:
• What are the challenges and opportunities in management education today?
• In what ways can institutional leaders manage all their resources boldly and effectively?
• What should be the significant changes in the mindset and, consequently, in the practices of institutional leaders and faculty members?

G Raghuram: I shall cover six aspects on why management education is still a good business in India.

1) India is a growing economy. There is a hunger for professionals who understand the nature of organisations. Management education is all about how to design, create, and manage organisations.

2) There is continuing student interest. It is a cultural attribute in India where people want to go right through and complete education and, on the other hand, there are working professionals who realise the need to understand the organisations they work for and progress in their careers.

3) In IIMs, we were told that General Management was the way to go. But today, institutions have opened up a lot of specialised programmes, partly to create positioning and to address the needs of different sectors. I am now advising institutes on programs such as Maritime Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Along with specialisations, the idea of partnerships is also emerging and entrepreneurship is gaining traction.

4) Even prior to Covid-19, the idea of institutions adopting online education and attempting hybrid forms of delivery had come in. But Covid has emphasized and accelerated it, and this is an opportunity that can be leveraged.

5) Executive education or continuing education were not necessarily offering degrees programmes, but depending on the stages in the career and differing needs, short modules are developed to suit the needs of this target group of students.

6) The centrepiece of our ability to execute all of the above with quality is faculty. That is a big challenge. A lot of quantity has come in the Indian ecosystem but focus has to be given to quality.

We have a lack of faculty at the higher level and those who are credentialed. Online education is both a challenge and an opportunity ~ Harbir Singh

Harbir Singh: I am happy to share that I was involved in the founding of the Indian School of Business (ISB), and I am associated with it even now. So I am familiar with the Indian management context. I would like to touch upon four aspects:

• The industry of management education
• The challenges it faces
• The career development needs of students and the requirements of management education
• The resource availability

Executive education and specialised programs are opportunities. Given the market situation, the institutes must come out boldly with specialised programs. ~ G Raghuram

Industry: Talking of the industry, business education has proliferated throughout the world as there is rising demand. There is a factor called GER—Graduate Enrolment Ratio. It is a measure of capacity in relation to the number of students eligible to join the college. India’s GER is 26% while that of China is 48%, UK 60% and US 80%. This implies that there is a need for capacity in management education in India.

Challenges: We have a lack of faculty at the higher level and those who are credentialed. Online education is both a challenge and an opportunity—challenge in terms of designing the instructional material, and opportunity in terms of scaling. Considering India’s GER, online is the way to go. The flight to quality is another important factor. As supply increases, quality becomes questionable.

Apart from faculty development, the question of credentialing needs to be addressed. We have all benefited from the visionary approach of Dr Vikram Sarabhai in creating world-class IIMs. There has to be a lot of curriculum innovation. We can use simulated models and games to drive home concepts and strategies. The industry-institute interaction has to be nurtured and the apprenticeship model is very important.

Continuing Education: The executive education in India is in the order of 50 to 100 million dollars. Worldwide, the top 15 executive education providers make revenue of 1 billion dollars. India has a tremendous scope and a ready market in this sphere.

Financial Viability: IIMs are funded by the Government. There can always be tension between the quality and source of funding. So, there is a role for endowments and other financial resources to develop management education.

Managing Resources

L.S.Ganesh: In what ways can the institutional leaders manage their resources in boldly attempting the desired changes in the present context?

G.Raghuram: The IIMs were set up by the government. But today, the originally started six IIMs have no government support for their revenues and for capital needs. IIMs are, in fact, able to generate quite a bit of surplus. IIMs have annual tuition fees in the range of Rs.20 lakhs. Even where the institutes charge a tuition fee of Rs.5 lakhs, there is an inherent viability and it is the good part of management education.

We often hear in India that there are too many B-Schools. But, Dr Harbir has pointed out that there is a big gap between supply and demand ~ Ramkumar

The hybrid model is the way forward and it is happening even in our IIMs. Preparatory programmes are being increasingly offered online. Some parts of the regular curriculum are drawn from the online MOOCs. Even earlier, the IIMs used to encourage the concept of students coming prepared to the class, so there can be more discussions and greater exploration of topics in the classroom.

Executive education and specialised programs are opportunities. Given the market situation, the institutes must come out boldly with specialised programs. The TAs (Teaching Assistants) help in unlocking a lot of faculty time. Doctoral programs are also an ideal source of potential faculty resources. They help in creating faculty material; they can also provide a lot of support to the faculty in the research part of their journey.

Different pedagogical tools like case studies, games and video tutorials can be curated in the classroom. The institutional leaders must protect the non-teaching time of faculties and enable them to work on case writing or research in their area of passion. I do not deny that written communication in the form of publications is good, but I feel that the over-emphasised need to publish peer reviewed papers in journals has taken the pendulum away from teaching in the classroom.

High quality publications versus high quality content and delivery is an interesting debate.

Harbir Singh: We need to increase the supply of PhDs to foster growth. But, just restricting the resource to PhDs is not correct. We should strive for innovation in curricula, and this will distinguish B-Schools in the days to come. Doctoral students can double up as teaching assistants as well as those who can create content.

The clarity on what can be delivered in a synchronous online mode or an asynchronous online mode and what can be taught in classrooms will be a crucial factor. B-Schools should bring in practising professors / industry experts, to a minimum of 10% of the faculty strength. The content must be relevant to practice. I feel that teaching quality and relevance to practice are highly correlated.

Mindset change

What should be the mindset change and, consequently, what should be the practices of institutional leaders and faculty members?

G.Raghuram:

• We need to be conscious of our different stakeholders—teaching staff, non-teaching staff, recruiters, management and students.

• Opportunities must be created to enrich the faculty in their non-teaching time.

• The leader should watch out for what excites the faculty and support them from behind while leading them from the front.

• The leader must put in place systems and hold people responsible to those systems.

• The best creative processes in an institution can happen if there is greater ownership of faculty.

• The Director must aim to de-directorise his/her role and encourage a bottom-up approach.

Harbir Singh: B-schools compete with each other in three dimensions—for ideas, delivery and deep understanding of phenomena. In terms of mindset, schools need to maximise in these three areas. It is important to keep in mind that this is a non-compensatory model.

An institutional culture must support three areas—talent, diversity, and innovation. The hierarchical approach will not allow for diversity of ideas. Talent has to be nurtured and given full autonomy, including the ability to challenge ideas from within the system. B-schools need to make themselves a good destination for faculty on the talent front and try to bring in people with deep knowledge and leverage them in classrooms.

The more we cut down on variety, the more we become vulnerable in facing adversity and risks.

Ramkumar: I have been on the interview panel of selection of faculty and I have observed that the quality of candidates is not satisfactory. We often hear in India that there are too many B-Schools. But, Dr Harbir has pointed out that there is a big gap between supply and demand in India going by the Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) of 26%.
We have to explore if there is a business opportunity for academicians like our panellists to revive many B-Schools and enhance their quality. A consultant group may focus solely on this area and give a blueprint for high quality management education. If B-Schools give good education, they can easily charge even Rs.10 lakhs as tuition fee since the students will be employable.

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